MLB HR Dashboard 2026

2026

Season

149

HR result days

Active models

33.4%

Best top-15 rate

59.0%

Best top-3 rate

⚡ Today's Home Runs connecting…

Waiting for today's first home run…

Today’s Picks — Friday, September 4, 2026 TODAY

v33

#	Player	Score
1	Kody Clemens	74.3%
2	José Ramírez	67.9%
3	Brayan Rocchio	66.6%
4	Nathan Church	66.6%
5	Ronald Acuña Jr.	66.5%
6	Ryan Jeffers	64.4%
7	Bobby Witt Jr.	63.3%
8	Pedro Pagés	63.3%
9	Isaac Paredes	63.0%
10	Riley Greene	61.3%
11	Jonah Cox	59.6%
12	Coby Mayo	59.0%
13	Angel Genao	58.7%
14	Cal Raleigh	58.7%
15	Lawrence Butler	58.5%

v3413

#	Player	Score
1	Angel Genao	13.4%
2	Kevin McGonigle	12.7%
3	José Ramírez	12.7%
4	Riley Greene	12.3%
5	Jared Triolo	11.7%
6	Carter Jensen	11.4%
7	Kody Clemens	11.3%
8	Coby Mayo	11.3%
9	Nathan Church	11.2%
10	Brayan Rocchio	11.1%
11	Ryan Jeffers	11.1%
12	Jonah Cox	11.0%
13	Salvador Perez	10.9%
14	Cal Raleigh	10.8%
15	Bobby Witt Jr.	10.8%

v3502

#	Player	Score
1	Kody Clemens	13.1%
2	Ryan Jeffers	13.0%
3	Angel Genao	12.9%
4	Carter Jensen	12.7%
5	Riley Greene	12.6%
6	José Ramírez	12.6%
7	Nathan Church	12.5%
8	Roman Anthony	12.3%
9	Coby Mayo	11.7%
10	Kaelen Culpepper	11.7%
11	Isaac Paredes	11.6%
12	Kevin McGonigle	11.6%
13	Salvador Perez	11.6%
14	Jonah Cox	11.5%
15	Pedro Pagés	11.4%

v3601

#	Player	Score
1	Brooks Lee	12.0%
2	Andrew Vaughn	11.3%
3	Brayan Rocchio	11.2%
4	Kyle Isbel	10.6%
5	Geraldo Perdomo	10.6%
6	Jarren Duran	10.6%
7	Riley Greene	10.6%
8	Tyler Stephenson	10.5%
9	Austin Hedges	10.4%
10	Bryson Stott	10.4%
11	Bryan De La Cruz	10.4%
12	Trevor Larnach	10.2%
13	Royce Lewis	10.2%
14	Luis Campusano	10.2%
15	Junior Caminero	10.1%

v3701

#	Player	Score
1	Ronald Acuña Jr.	8.5%
2	Jake Burger	8.4%
3	Mookie Betts	8.3%
4	Jordan Lawlar	8.3%
5	Junior Caminero	8.3%
6	Sean Murphy	8.3%
7	Cal Raleigh	8.3%
8	Riley Greene	8.3%
9	Joe Mack	8.3%
10	Hao-Yu Lee	8.3%
11	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	8.2%
12	Wyatt Langford	8.2%
13	Sal Stewart	8.2%
14	Alex Bregman	8.2%
15	Pete Alonso	8.2%

v38

#	Player	Score
1	Ezequiel Duran	10.2%
2	Carson Kelly	10.1%
3	Seiya Suzuki	10.1%
4	Jonathan Aranda	10.0%
5	Carter Jensen	10.0%
6	Jeremy Peña	10.0%
7	Eduardo Valencia	10.0%
8	Henry Bolte	10.0%
9	Hao-Yu Lee	9.9%
10	Alex Bregman	9.9%
11	Daylen Lile	9.9%
12	Jordan Walker	9.9%
13	Zack Gelof	9.9%
14	Jordan Lawlar	9.9%
15	Justin Foscue	9.9%

v3801

#	Player	Score
1	Ezequiel Duran	10.2%
2	Carson Kelly	10.1%
3	Seiya Suzuki	10.1%
4	Jonathan Aranda	10.0%
5	Carter Jensen	10.0%
6	Jeremy Peña	10.0%
7	Eduardo Valencia	10.0%
8	Henry Bolte	10.0%
9	Hao-Yu Lee	9.9%
10	Alex Bregman	9.9%
11	Daylen Lile	9.9%
12	Jordan Walker	9.9%
13	Zack Gelof	9.9%
14	Jordan Lawlar	9.9%
15	Justin Foscue	9.9%

combined_v1

#	Player	Score
1	Alex Bregman	94.2%
2	Riley Greene	93.3%
3	Francisco Lindor	93.2%
4	Daylen Lile	92.3%
5	Pete Crow-Armstrong	91.8%
6	Brooks Lee	89.9%
7	Seiya Suzuki	89.8%
8	Brian Serven	86.9%
9	Corbin Carroll	86.0%
10	Carson Kelly	83.8%
11	Brayan Rocchio	82.0%
12	Henry Bolte	79.1%
13	Jeremy Peña	78.6%
14	Isaac Paredes	78.4%
15	Rafael Devers	77.3%

v39

#	Player	Score
1	Carson Kelly	11.2%
2	Henry Bolte	11.2%
3	Ezequiel Duran	11.2%
4	Daylen Lile	11.1%
5	Carter Jensen	11.1%
6	Jonathan Aranda	11.1%
7	Riley Greene	11.1%
8	Pete Crow-Armstrong	11.0%
9	Hao-Yu Lee	11.0%
10	Rafael Devers	11.0%
11	Eduardo Valencia	11.0%
12	Seiya Suzuki	11.0%
13	Jordan Lawlar	11.0%
14	Francisco Lindor	11.0%
15	Sal Stewart	11.0%

v40

#	Player	Score
1	Junior Caminero	16.6%
2	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	16.6%
3	Cal Raleigh	15.8%
4	Pete Alonso	14.8%
5	Yordan Alvarez	14.8%
6	Munetaka Murakami	14.7%
7	Pete Crow-Armstrong	14.5%
8	Heriberto Hernández	14.5%
9	Rafael Devers	14.5%
10	Brandon Lowe	14.4%
11	Leo Bernal	14.0%
12	Juan Soto	14.0%
13	Oneil Cruz	13.9%
14	Eduardo Valencia	13.1%
15	Hunter Goodman	13.1%

Model Leaderboard — Season 2026

Best at each depth: Top-1: v40 · Top-2: v40 · Top-3: v40 · Top-5: v40 · Top-10: v40 · Top-15: v40

Model	Days	Top-3	Top-5	Top-10	Top-15
v40best More Top-1 68.1%Top-2 61.9%Recent ▼ 13.8%	135	59.0% ^#1 239/405	51.6% ^#1 348/675	39.5% ^#1 533/1350	33.4% ^#1 677/2025
v33 More Top-1 17.4%Top-2 16.1%Recent ▼ 12.3%	149	17.9% ^#5 80/447	18.9% ^#4 141/745	18.3% ^#2 273/1490	17.8% ^#2 397/2235
v3601 More Top-1 21.1%Top-2 17.3%Recent ▼ 9.2%	147	20.2% ^#4 89/441	19.7% ^#2 145/735	17.8% ^#3 262/1470	17.0% ^#3 375/2205
v3413 More Top-1 23.0%Top-2 24.3%Recent ▼ 14.4%	148	21.4% ^#2 95/444	18.5% ^#5 137/740	17.2% ^#4 255/1480	17.0% ^#4 377/2220
v3502 More Top-1 20.4%Top-2 19.4%Recent ▼ 12.8%	147	20.6% ^#3 91/441	19.3% ^#3 142/735	16.9% ^#5 249/1470	16.5% ^#5 364/2205
combined_v1 More Top-1 16.8%Top-2 15.4%Recent ▼ 12.3%	143	16.3% ^#6 70/429	16.6% ^#6 119/715	15.8% ^#6 226/1430	15.6% ^#6 334/2145
v39 More Top-1 15.4%Top-2 13.4%Recent ▼ 12.8%	149	14.3% ^#10 64/447	14.2% ^#10 106/745	15.6% ^#8 233/1490	15.2% ^#7 339/2235
v3701 More Top-1 18.0%Top-2 15.7%Recent ▼ 10.3%	89	16.1% ^#8 43/267	16.2% ^#7 72/445	15.7% ^#7 140/890	14.4% ^#8 192/1335
v3801retire? More Top-1 20.9%Top-2 18.0%Recent ▼ 11.8%	86	16.3% ^#7 42/258	14.7% ^#9 63/430	14.3% ^#9 123/860	14.3% ^#9 184/1290
v38retire? More Top-1 19.5%Top-2 16.1%Recent ▼ 11.8%	87	14.9% ^#9 39/261	14.9% ^#8 65/435	13.7% ^#10 119/870	14.0% ^#10 183/1305

Cross-Model Consensus — Does Agreement Predict HRs?

⚡ TODAY'S CONSENSUS PICKS

Top-1 of each model — today’s overlap

Agreement	Players
2/10	Kody Clemens (v33#1 · v3502#1) • Ezequiel Duran (v38#1 · v3801#1)

Top-3 of each model — today’s overlap

Agreement	Players
3/10	Ezequiel Duran (v38#1 · v3801#1 · v39#3) • Carson Kelly (v38#2 · v3801#2 · v39#1)
2/10	Kody Clemens (v33#1 · v3502#1) • José Ramírez (v33#2 · v3413#3) • Brayan Rocchio (v33#3 · v3601#3) • Angel Genao (v3413#1 · v3502#3) • Seiya Suzuki (v38#3 · v3801#3)

Top-5 of each model — today’s overlap

Agreement	Players
4/10	Carter Jensen (v3502#4 · v38#5 · v3801#5 · v39#5)
3/10	Riley Greene (v3413#4 · v3502#5 · combined_v1#2) • Ezequiel Duran (v38#1 · v3801#1 · v39#3) • Carson Kelly (v38#2 · v3801#2 · v39#1)
2/10	Kody Clemens (v33#1 · v3502#1) • José Ramírez (v33#2 · v3413#3) • Brayan Rocchio (v33#3 · v3601#3) • Ronald Acuña Jr. (v33#5 · v3701#1) • Angel Genao (v3413#1 · v3502#3) • Junior Caminero (v3701#5 · v40#1) • Seiya Suzuki (v38#3 · v3801#3) • Jonathan Aranda (v38#4 · v3801#4) • Daylen Lile (combined_v1#4 · v39#4)

Top-1 of each model

Player appeared in top-1 of each model (every model's #1 pick)

Consensus (click row → today)	Appearances	HR Hits	Hit Rate	% of picks
7/10 models	1	0	0.0%	0%
6/10 models	2	0	0.0%	0%
5/10 models	2	0	0.0%	0%
4/10 models	37	16	43.2%	5%
3/10 models	72	13	18.1%	9%
2/10 models	183	38	20.8%	22%
1/10 models	521	132	25.3%	64%

Top-3 of each model

Player appeared in top-3 of at least N models on the same day

Consensus (click row → today)	Appearances	HR Hits	Hit Rate	% of picks
9/10 models	1	0	0.0%	0%
8/10 models	3	1	33.3%	0%
7/10 models	7	3	42.9%	0%
6/10 models	16	5	31.2%	1%
5/10 models	44	11	25.0%	2%
4/10 models	147	40	27.2%	7%
3/10 models	225	39	17.3%	10%
2/10 models	475	85	17.9%	22%
1/10 models	1229	291	23.7%	57%

Top-5 of each model

Player appeared in top-5 of at least N models on the same day

Consensus (click row → today)	Appearances	HR Hits	Hit Rate	% of picks
9/10 models	1	0	0.0%	0%
8/10 models	13	5	38.5%	0%
7/10 models	20	5	25.0%	1%
6/10 models	34	8	23.5%	1%
5/10 models	97	23	23.7%	3%
4/10 models	272	59	21.7%	8%
3/10 models	399	73	18.3%	12%
2/10 models	723	135	18.7%	22%
1/10 models	1727	375	21.7%	53%

Consistent outlier (sole dissenter when ≥N-1 agreed): v39 10×v3601 3×v40 2×v33 1×v3413 1×v3701 1×combined_v1 1×v3502 1×v39 dissented alone 10× across all depths

Higher agreement = stronger consensus signal. Click any row to see today's matching players.

Hit Grid — Season 2026 (most recent first)

Date	HRs	v33	v3413	v3502	v3601	v3701	v38	v3801	combined_v1	v39	v40 ★
09/04		·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
09/03	15	4/15	3/15	3/15	2/15	2/15	1/15	1/15	2/15	2/15	1/15
09/02	33	2/15	3/15	3/15	1/15	1/15	2/15	2/15	3/15	2/15	0/15
09/01	36	1/15	1/15	2/15	1/15	1/15	3/15	3/15	2/15	1/15	0/15
08/31	27	2/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	3/15
08/30	34	0/15	2/15	1/15	2/15	6/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	1/15	2/15
08/29	27	1/15	2/15	2/15	1/15	1/15	2/15	2/15	1/15	2/15	4/15
08/28	31	4/15	2/15	1/15	2/15	1/15	7/15	7/15	3/15	4/15	1/15
08/27	15	3/15	2/15	3/15	3/15	0/15	2/15	2/15	1/15	3/15	1/15
08/26	31	2/15	3/15	2/15	1/15	3/15	2/15	2/15	3/15	3/15	5/15
08/25	28	1/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	3/15	0/15	0/15	1/15	0/15	5/15
08/24	17	1/15	2/15	1/15	1/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	1/15	0/15	1/15
08/23	27	1/15	3/15	3/15	1/15	0/15	1/15	1/15	3/15	1/15	3/15
08/22	39	2/15	3/15	2/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	2/15	4/15	1/15
08/21	28	2/15	1/15	2/15	0/15	3/15	1/15	1/15	2/15	2/15	4/15
08/20	14	1/15	3/15	2/15	3/15	0/15	2/15	2/15	1/15	0/15	2/15
08/19	25	2/15	4/15	3/15	2/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	1/15	2/15	2/15
08/18	32	2/15	1/15	0/15	4/15	2/15	3/15	3/15	2/15	2/15	4/15
08/17	22	2/15	2/15	1/15	3/15	0/15	1/15	1/15	2/15	1/15	5/15
08/16	42	3/15	2/15	3/15	3/15	2/15	4/15	4/15	4/15	3/15	3/15
08/15	27	1/15	1/15	0/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	0/15	1/15	1/15
08/14	30	2/15	1/15	1/15	2/15	0/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	2/15
08/13	15	1/15	2/15	1/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	2/15	0/15	2/15
08/12	35	0/15	0/15	0/15	1/15	2/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	0/15	1/15
08/11	37	3/15	4/15	3/15	3/15	4/15	1/15	1/15	3/15	1/15	3/15
08/10	18	1/15	2/15	2/15	0/15	2/15	1/15	1/15	3/15	1/15	1/15
08/09	30	1/15	3/15	1/15	4/15	2/15	3/15	3/15	2/15	3/15	4/15
08/08	25	1/15	2/15	2/15	1/15	3/15	2/15	2/15	3/15	3/15	3/15
08/07	35	1/15	2/15	1/15	1/15	2/15	0/15	0/15	1/15	0/15	2/15
08/06	23	3/15	1/15	1/15	0/15	0/15	2/15	2/15	0/15	0/15	4/15
08/05	28	1/15	1/15	1/15	0/15	1/15	2/15	2/15	1/15	0/15	2/15
08/04	29	0/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	1/15	1/15	1/15
08/03	26	3/15	0/15	1/15	2/15	3/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	3/15	1/15
08/02	30	2/15	0/15	0/15	1/15	2/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	2/15	0/15
08/01	33	1/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	1/15	2/15	2/15	4/15	1/15	2/15
07/31	37	3/15	0/15	3/15	1/15	3/15	2/15	2/15	1/15	2/15	0/15
07/30	17	0/15	1/15	2/15	0/15	1/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	5/15
07/29	22	1/15	0/15	0/15	2/15	1/15	0/15	0/15	2/15	0/15	7/15
07/28	27	1/15	1/15	1/15	2/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	10/15
07/27	26	2/15	3/15	3/15	0/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	3/15	2/15	7/15
07/26	36	2/15	2/15	2/15	4/15	4/15	4/15	3/15	5/15	2/15	3/15
07/25	14	2/15	1/15	0/15	2/15	4/15	2/15	2/15	1/15	2/15	5/15
07/24	26	1/15	2/15	1/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	3/15	2/15	2/15
07/23	9	3/15	1/15	1/15	0/15	0/15	1/15	1/15	0/15	1/15	7/15
07/22	36	3/15	4/15	4/15	4/15	3/15	2/15	2/15	1/15	2/15	8/15
07/21	29	2/15	1/15	1/15	3/15	1/15	0/15	0/15	1/15	1/15	5/15
07/20	46	4/15	5/15	3/15	3/15	3/15	3/15	3/15	3/15	4/15	8/15
07/19	35	2/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	1/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	3/15	8/15
07/18	17	1/15	1/15	0/15	1/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	3/15
07/17	36	3/15	4/15	3/15	2/15	3/15	1/15	7/15	1/15	5/15	7/15
07/16	3	2/15	2/15	2/15	3/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	1/15	—
07/09	38	6/15	7/15	7/15	7/15	6/15	5/15	5/15	5/15	5/15	—
07/08	34	2/15	1/15	1/15	2/15	5/15	4/15	4/15	4/15	3/15	—
07/07	31	2/15	2/15	2/15	3/15	0/15	1/15	1/15	3/15	4/15	6/15
07/06	22	3/15	2/15	3/15	3/15	2/15	2/15	4/15	6/15	6/15	8/15
07/05	33	2/15	2/15	3/15	3/15	6/15	4/15	3/15	3/15	0/15	—
07/04	43	3/15	3/15	3/15	4/15	2/15	3/15	4/15	4/15	2/15	—
07/03	32	4/15	4/15	3/15	5/15	3/15	4/15	4/15	4/15	3/15	—
07/02	26	3/15	3/15	2/15	2/15	1/15	4/15	1/15	2/15	2/15	5/15
07/01	42	3/15	3/15	3/15	3/15	3/15	2/15	—	2/15	1/15	—

Cell = hits/picks★column leader■≥30%■≥20%■≥13%■>0%■0 hits

📈 Next-Day Backtest — When Model Picks on Day D, Does Player Hit on Day D+1? "They go tomorrow" theory

Shows how often a model’s top-N picks on one day hit a home run the next game day. Compare against same-day rates in the same-day leaderboard above. Green delta = next-day outperforms same-day.

Ver	Pairs	Top-1	Top-3	Top-5	Top-10	Top-15	Same-day top-15	Δ
v40	135	17.8% 24/135	23.0% 93/405	21.6% 146/675	18.4% 249/1350	17.7% 359/2025	33.4%	▼ -15.7%
v33	148	24.3% 36/148	17.6% 78/444	16.9% 125/740	16.1% 239/1480	14.3% 318/2220	17.8%	▼ -3.4%
v3701	88	21.6% 19/88	20.1% 53/264	17.3% 76/440	15.5% 136/880	14.2% 188/1320	14.4%	→ -0.1%
combined_v1	143	11.9% 17/143	12.4% 53/429	12.2% 87/715	13.1% 187/1430	13.4% 288/2145	15.6%	▼ -2.1%
v3413	147	23.8% 35/147	17.7% 78/441	15.9% 117/735	13.9% 204/1470	13.4% 296/2205	17.0%	▼ -3.6%
v3502	146	21.9% 32/146	17.8% 78/438	15.2% 111/730	13.1% 191/1460	12.9% 283/2190	16.5%	▼ -3.6%
v38	86	17.4% 15/86	14.7% 38/258	14.4% 62/430	14.0% 120/860	12.6% 162/1290	14.0%	→ -1.5%
v3601	146	16.4% 24/146	15.1% 66/438	15.1% 110/730	12.9% 189/1460	12.4% 272/2190	17.0%	▼ -4.6%
v39	148	9.5% 14/148	10.4% 46/444	11.5% 85/740	12.2% 180/1480	12.2% 270/2220	15.2%	▼ -3.0%
v3801	85	16.5% 14/85	13.7% 35/255	13.4% 57/425	13.3% 113/850	12.2% 155/1275	14.3%	▼ -2.1%

v33 — Top next-day hitters

Player	Times Picked	Next-day HRs	Rate
Rhys Hoskins	3	2	66.7%
Jonah Heim	3	2	66.7%
Dansby Swanson	8	4	50.0%
Luis Campusano	2	1	50.0%
Brandon Nimmo	4	2	50.0%
Luke Raley	2	1	50.0%
Andrew Vaughn	2	1	50.0%
Harrison Bader	2	1	50.0%
Jose Siri	2	1	50.0%
Luis García Jr.	2	1	50.0%

v3413 — Top next-day hitters

Player	Times Picked	Next-day HRs	Rate
Dansby Swanson	3	2	66.7%
Brandon Nimmo	2	1	50.0%
Xander Bogaerts	4	2	50.0%
Zack Gelof	2	1	50.0%
Brandon Valenzuela	2	1	50.0%
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	2	1	50.0%
Nathan Lukes	2	1	50.0%
Carter Jensen	10	4	40.0%
Jordan Walker	24	9	37.5%
Rhys Hoskins	8	3	37.5%

v3502 — Top next-day hitters

Player	Times Picked	Next-day HRs	Rate
Dansby Swanson	5	3	60.0%
Brandon Nimmo	2	1	50.0%
Max Kepler	2	1	50.0%
Luis Campusano	2	1	50.0%
Angel Genao	2	1	50.0%
Fernando Tatis Jr.	2	1	50.0%
Wyatt Langford	2	1	50.0%
Jackson Merrill	2	1	50.0%
George Springer	8	3	37.5%
Gavin Sheets	8	3	37.5%

v3601 — Top next-day hitters

Player	Times Picked	Next-day HRs	Rate
Xavier Edwards	3	2	66.7%
Oneil Cruz	6	3	50.0%
Matt Wallner	2	1	50.0%
Jonathan Aranda	2	1	50.0%
Spencer Steer	2	1	50.0%
Eric Wagaman	2	1	50.0%
Elias Díaz	2	1	50.0%
Aaron Judge	15	7	46.7%
Shohei Ohtani	12	5	41.7%
Cj Abrams	26	9	34.6%

v3701 — Top next-day hitters

Player	Times Picked	Next-day HRs	Rate
Rafael Flores Jr.	3	2	66.7%
Ryan O'Hearn	4	2	50.0%
Dalton Rushing	2	1	50.0%
Tyler Soderstrom	4	2	50.0%
Jackson Merrill	4	2	50.0%
Kyle Stowers	2	1	50.0%
Christian Vázquez	2	1	50.0%
Ke'Bryan Hayes	2	1	50.0%
Jose Altuve	2	1	50.0%
Hunter Goodman	12	5	41.7%

v38 — Top next-day hitters

Player	Times Picked	Next-day HRs	Rate
Brandon Nimmo	2	1	50.0%
Kyle Tucker	2	1	50.0%
Hunter Goodman	9	4	44.4%
Byron Buxton	17	6	35.3%
Zach Neto	20	6	30.0%
Yordan Alvarez	14	4	28.6%
Shohei Ohtani	18	5	27.8%
Miguel Vargas	11	3	27.3%
Jordan Walker	11	3	27.3%
Cj Abrams	12	3	25.0%

v3801 — Top next-day hitters

Player	Times Picked	Next-day HRs	Rate
Colton Cowser	2	1	50.0%
Brandon Nimmo	2	1	50.0%
Jake Cronenworth	2	1	50.0%
Joey Ortiz	2	1	50.0%
Kyle Tucker	2	1	50.0%
Hunter Goodman	10	4	40.0%
Byron Buxton	15	6	40.0%
Shohei Ohtani	18	5	27.8%
Zach Neto	18	5	27.8%
Miguel Vargas	11	3	27.3%

combined_v1 — Top next-day hitters

Player	Times Picked	Next-day HRs	Rate
Samuel Basallo	2	2	100.0%
Wilyer Abreu	3	2	66.7%
Nelson Velázquez	2	1	50.0%
Cj Abrams	8	4	50.0%
Nathan Lukes	2	1	50.0%
Ronald Acuña Jr.	2	1	50.0%
Fernando Tatis Jr.	2	1	50.0%
Joey Ortiz	2	1	50.0%
Daylen Lile	4	2	50.0%
Griffin Conine	9	3	33.3%

v39 — Top next-day hitters

Player	Times Picked	Next-day HRs	Rate
Tim Tawa	2	1	50.0%
Samuel Basallo	2	1	50.0%
David Fry	2	1	50.0%
Isaac Paredes	2	1	50.0%
Dansby Swanson	2	1	50.0%
Michael Harris Ii	8	4	50.0%
Hunter Goodman	2	1	50.0%
Kyle Tucker	2	1	50.0%
Eugenio Suárez	2	1	50.0%
Cj Abrams	9	3	33.3%

v40 — Top next-day hitters

Player	Times Picked	Next-day HRs	Rate
Nolan Schanuel	2	1	50.0%
Will Smith	2	1	50.0%
Taylor Trammell	2	1	50.0%
Tristan Peters	2	1	50.0%
Jordan Walker	28	10	35.7%
Pete Crow-Armstrong	39	12	30.8%
Aaron Judge	34	10	29.4%
Byron Buxton	48	14	29.2%
Cal Raleigh	18	5	27.8%
Mickey Moniak	29	8	27.6%

📈 Next-Day Hit Grid — Season 2026 (predictions on D, HRs on D+1)

Each cell = model’s top-15 picks on day D vs actual HR hitters on day D+1. Toggle depth below.

Prediction Date	Next-day HRs	v33	v3413	v3502	v3601	v3701	v38	v3801	combined_v1	v39	v40 ★
06/30	42	2/15	4/15	3/15	1/15	5/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	4/15
07/01	26	1/15	2/15	2/15	1/15	3/15	2/15	—	2/15	1/15	—
07/02	32	2/15	1/15	1/15	3/15	1/15	2/15	0/15	2/15	2/15	1/15
07/03	43	3/15	3/15	3/15	3/15	3/15	4/15	4/15	4/15	2/15	—
07/04	33	3/15	4/15	4/15	3/15	6/15	5/15	3/15	3/15	1/15	—
07/05	22	2/15	0/15	0/15	4/15	1/15	2/15	1/15	2/15	6/15	—
07/06	31	1/15	1/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	5/15	6/15	6/15	5/15
07/07	34	4/15	3/15	3/15	1/15	5/15	4/15	4/15	4/15	2/15	3/15
07/08	38	4/15	6/15	7/15	5/15	6/15	4/15	4/15	5/15	5/15	—
07/09	3	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	—
07/16	36	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	—
07/17	17	0/15	0/15	0/15	2/15	0/15	0/15	1/15	0/15	1/15	0/15
07/18	35	1/15	0/15	1/15	2/15	1/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	2/15
07/19	46	3/15	2/15	2/15	3/15	1/15	3/15	3/15	4/15	1/15	3/15
07/20	29	2/15	3/15	2/15	1/15	2/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	3/15	3/15
07/21	36	2/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	3/15	2/15	2/15	1/15	2/15	1/15
07/22	9	0/15	1/15	1/15	0/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	2/15	0/15
07/23	26	1/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	2/15
07/24	14	1/15	2/15	1/15	0/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	3/15	1/15	1/15
07/25	36	1/15	0/15	0/15	1/15	1/15	2/15	2/15	3/15	3/15	3/15
07/26	26	3/15	2/15	2/15	0/15	2/15	3/15	1/15	2/15	1/15	2/15
07/27	27	2/15	1/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	3/15	0/15	2/15
07/28	22	2/15	3/15	2/15	0/15	1/15	0/15	0/15	2/15	1/15	2/15
07/29	17	0/15	1/15	2/15	0/15	0/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	3/15
07/30	37	2/15	0/15	1/15	2/15	3/15	0/15	0/15	2/15	1/15	2/15
07/31	33	3/15	1/15	0/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	2/15
08/01	30	1/15	2/15	3/15	1/15	3/15	3/15	3/15	3/15	4/15	0/15
08/02	26	1/15	1/15	0/15	1/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	2/15	0/15	1/15
08/03	29	3/15	1/15	0/15	0/15	3/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	3/15	3/15
08/04	28	1/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	1/15	0/15	0/15	1/15	0/15	2/15
08/05	23	1/15	2/15	1/15	2/15	0/15	1/15	1/15	2/15	1/15	0/15
08/06	35	2/15	1/15	1/15	0/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	3/15	3/15	2/15
08/07	25	1/15	1/15	1/15	0/15	0/15	1/15	1/15	3/15	3/15	4/15
08/08	30	3/15	3/15	3/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	4/15
08/09	18	1/15	0/15	3/15	1/15	3/15	1/15	1/15	2/15	0/15	0/15
08/10	37	2/15	2/15	2/15	3/15	3/15	3/15	3/15	5/15	1/15	3/15
08/11	35	0/15	1/15	1/15	2/15	0/15	1/15	1/15	2/15	2/15	3/15
08/12	15	1/15	0/15	1/15	0/15	2/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	3/15
08/13	30	1/15	0/15	1/15	2/15	1/15	3/15	3/15	2/15	2/15	1/15
08/14	27	1/15	1/15	2/15	0/15	4/15	2/15	2/15	1/15	1/15	0/15
08/15	42	3/15	2/15	3/15	1/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	3/15	1/15	3/15
08/16	22	2/15	2/15	1/15	3/15	0/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	4/15
08/17	32	0/15	0/15	0/15	1/15	0/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	0/15	5/15
08/18	25	1/15	2/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	0/15	2/15
08/19	14	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	2/15	0/15	1/15
08/20	28	2/15	2/15	1/15	2/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	0/15	2/15	4/15
08/21	39	3/15	1/15	0/15	2/15	5/15	3/15	3/15	3/15	3/15	2/15
08/22	27	1/15	1/15	2/15	2/15	0/15	2/15	2/15	1/15	2/15	3/15
08/23	17	0/15	0/15	2/15	0/15	1/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15
08/24	28	0/15	2/15	1/15	2/15	3/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	0/15	2/15
08/25	31	2/15	2/15	2/15	0/15	3/15	3/15	3/15	0/15	0/15	6/15
08/26	15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	2/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	0/15
08/27	31	2/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	1/15	2/15	2/15	4/15	4/15	1/15
08/28	27	1/15	1/15	3/15	4/15	5/15	1/15	1/15	2/15	1/15	5/15
08/29	34	2/15	2/15	2/15	1/15	3/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	1/15	2/15
08/30	27	3/15	1/15	1/15	3/15	1/15	1/15	1/15	2/15	2/15	3/15
08/31	36	1/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	0/15	1/15	1/15	2/15
09/01	33	2/15	2/15	2/15	2/15	1/15	2/15	2/15	1/15	2/15	0/15
09/02	15	1/15	2/15	2/15	0/15	3/15	1/15	1/15	0/15	1/15	2/15
09/03		·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·

Cell = hits/picks vs next-day HRs★column leader■≥30%■≥20%■≥13%■>0%■0 hits

🔬 Feature Combinations — Long-Tail HR Signals

Combinations of 2–4 pregame signals that all land on the same number, graded against every player-day that actually played. Baseline HR rate 11.9% over 9,844 graded player-days (2026-06-01 – 2026-08-01). Ranked by Wilson lower bound, not raw rate. “Validated” means the combination also held up after 2026-07-11 and survived Benjamini–Hochberg FDR control. Click any row for the underlying player-days. Narrowing the date range recomputes hits, trials, rate, lift and Wilson LB over that window; status and the validation split always describe the full mined range.

Size Kind Status Cipher Min sample From To

150 combinations shown

Feature combination

Shared value

Hits

Trials

HR rate

Baseline

Lift

Wilson LB

Status

firstlast = firstname = opponent name [chaldean]

—

60.0%

11.9%

5.02×

31.3%

discovery

Signals: firstlast, firstname, opponent name [chaldean]

6 distinct players · 9 distinct dates · 2026-06-09 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 0/2

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-09	Michael Massey	—	no HR
2026-06-09	Jac Caglianone	—	HR
2026-06-12	James Wood	—	HR
2026-06-13	James Wood	—	no HR
2026-06-14	James Wood	—	HR
2026-06-19	TJ Rumfield	—	HR
2026-06-20	TJ Rumfield	—	no HR
2026-06-21	TJ Rumfield	—	HR
2026-07-04	Miles Mastrobuoni	—	no HR
2026-07-10	Kevin McGonigle	—	HR

dob weeks = firstname = opponent city [rev_reduction]

—

60.0%

11.9%

5.02×

31.3%

discovery

Signals: dob weeks, firstname, opponent city [rev_reduction]

5 distinct players · 10 distinct dates · 2026-06-12 → 2026-07-03 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-12	James Outman	—	HR
2026-06-19	Luis García Jr.	—	HR
2026-06-20	Luis García Jr.	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Luis García Jr.	—	no HR
2026-06-22	Dansby Swanson	—	HR
2026-06-23	Dansby Swanson	—	HR
2026-06-24	Dansby Swanson	—	HR
2026-06-25	Dansby Swanson	—	no HR
2026-06-28	Nicky Lopez	—	no HR
2026-07-03	Nick Kurtz	—	HR

firstname = own city [ordinal] = player name [reduction]

—

44.4%

11.9%

3.72×

27.6%

discovery

Signals: firstname, own city [ordinal], player name [reduction]

1 distinct players · 27 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 1/4

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Pete Crow-Armstrong	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Pete Crow-Armstrong	—	HR
2026-06-04	Pete Crow-Armstrong	—	HR
2026-06-05	Pete Crow-Armstrong	—	no HR
2026-06-06	Pete Crow-Armstrong	—	HR
2026-06-09	Pete Crow-Armstrong	—	no HR
2026-06-12	Pete Crow-Armstrong	—	no HR
2026-06-13	Pete Crow-Armstrong	—	HR
2026-06-14	Pete Crow-Armstrong	—	no HR
2026-06-15	Pete Crow-Armstrong	—	HR
2026-06-16	Pete Crow-Armstrong	—	HR
2026-06-17	Pete Crow-Armstrong	—	HR

Showing first 12 of 27 qualifying player-days.

firstname = own city [ordinal] = player name [reduction] = 46

44.4%

11.9%

3.72×

27.6%

discovery

Signals: firstname, own city [ordinal], player name [reduction]

1 distinct players · 27 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 1/4

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	no HR
2026-06-03	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	HR
2026-06-04	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	HR
2026-06-05	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	no HR
2026-06-06	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	HR
2026-06-09	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	no HR
2026-06-12	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	no HR
2026-06-13	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	HR
2026-06-14	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	no HR
2026-06-15	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	HR
2026-06-16	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	HR
2026-06-17	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	HR

Showing first 12 of 27 qualifying player-days.

firstname = own city [ordinal] = 46

44.4%

11.9%

3.72×

27.6%

discovery

Signals: firstname, own city [ordinal]

1 distinct players · 27 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 1/4

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	no HR
2026-06-03	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	HR
2026-06-04	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	HR
2026-06-05	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	no HR
2026-06-06	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	HR
2026-06-09	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	no HR
2026-06-12	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	no HR
2026-06-13	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	HR
2026-06-14	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	no HR
2026-06-15	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	HR
2026-06-16	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	HR
2026-06-17	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	HR

Showing first 12 of 27 qualifying player-days.

firstname = player name [reduction] = 46

44.4%

11.9%

3.72×

27.6%

discovery

Signals: firstname, player name [reduction]

1 distinct players · 27 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 1/4

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	no HR
2026-06-03	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	HR
2026-06-04	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	HR
2026-06-05	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	no HR
2026-06-06	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	HR
2026-06-09	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	no HR
2026-06-12	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	no HR
2026-06-13	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	HR
2026-06-14	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	no HR
2026-06-15	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	HR
2026-06-16	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	HR
2026-06-17	Pete Crow-Armstrong	46	HR

Showing first 12 of 27 qualifying player-days.

firstname = player name [rev_reduction] = 62

44.4%

11.9%

3.72×

27.6%

discovery

Signals: firstname, player name [rev_reduction]

1 distinct players · 27 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 1/4

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Pete Crow-Armstrong	62	no HR
2026-06-03	Pete Crow-Armstrong	62	HR
2026-06-04	Pete Crow-Armstrong	62	HR
2026-06-05	Pete Crow-Armstrong	62	no HR
2026-06-06	Pete Crow-Armstrong	62	HR
2026-06-09	Pete Crow-Armstrong	62	no HR
2026-06-12	Pete Crow-Armstrong	62	no HR
2026-06-13	Pete Crow-Armstrong	62	HR
2026-06-14	Pete Crow-Armstrong	62	no HR
2026-06-15	Pete Crow-Armstrong	62	HR
2026-06-16	Pete Crow-Armstrong	62	HR
2026-06-17	Pete Crow-Armstrong	62	HR

Showing first 12 of 27 qualifying player-days.

first name [reduction] = rulingplanet [reduction]

—

47.1%

11.9%

3.94×

26.2%

discovery

Signals: first name [reduction], rulingplanet [reduction]

16 distinct players · 8 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 0/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Patrick Wisdom	—	no HR
2026-06-01	Josh Naylor	—	HR
2026-06-12	Endy Rodríguez	—	HR
2026-06-15	JJ Bleday	—	HR
2026-06-15	Noelvi Marte	—	no HR
2026-06-15	Edwin Arroyo	—	no HR
2026-06-23	Ty France	—	no HR
2026-06-23	Fernando Tatis Jr.	—	HR
2026-07-01	Jordan Walker	—	no HR
2026-07-02	Josh Smith	—	HR
2026-07-02	Nicky Lopez	—	no HR
2026-07-09	Lawrence Butler	—	no HR

Showing first 12 of 17 qualifying player-days.

dateyearfull [rev_reduction] = oppleaguename [ordinal]

—

50.0%

11.9%

4.18×

25.4%

discovery

Signals: dateyearfull [rev_reduction], oppleaguename [ordinal]

10 distinct players · 2 distinct dates · 2026-06-16 → 2026-06-21 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-16	Bryce Harper	—	no HR
2026-06-16	Lawrence Butler	—	no HR
2026-06-16	Zach Neto	—	HR
2026-06-16	Drew Gilbert	—	no HR
2026-06-16	Sal Stewart	—	HR
2026-06-21	Bryce Harper	—	HR
2026-06-21	Taylor Ward	—	HR
2026-06-21	William Contreras	—	HR
2026-06-21	Bryan Reynolds	—	HR
2026-06-21	Brice Turang	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Drew Gilbert	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Ben Williamson	—	no HR

dateyearfull [rev_reduction] = oppleaguename [ordinal] = 137

137

50.0%

11.9%

4.18×

25.4%

discovery

Signals: dateyearfull [rev_reduction], oppleaguename [ordinal]

10 distinct players · 2 distinct dates · 2026-06-16 → 2026-06-21 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-16	Bryce Harper	137	no HR
2026-06-16	Lawrence Butler	137	no HR
2026-06-16	Zach Neto	137	HR
2026-06-16	Drew Gilbert	137	no HR
2026-06-16	Sal Stewart	137	HR
2026-06-21	Bryce Harper	137	HR
2026-06-21	Taylor Ward	137	HR
2026-06-21	William Contreras	137	HR
2026-06-21	Bryan Reynolds	137	HR
2026-06-21	Brice Turang	137	no HR
2026-06-21	Drew Gilbert	137	no HR
2026-06-21	Ben Williamson	137	no HR

firstname = birth state [latin] = jersey [raw]

—

50.0%

11.9%

4.18×

25.4%

discovery

Signals: firstname, birth state [latin], jersey [raw]

10 distinct players · 5 distinct dates · 2026-06-19 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-19	Spencer Steer	—	no HR
2026-06-19	Blake Dunn	—	no HR
2026-06-25	Marcelo Mayer	—	no HR
2026-06-25	Caleb Durbin	—	HR
2026-06-30	Spencer Torkelson	—	HR
2026-06-30	Kerry Carpenter	—	HR
2026-06-30	Javier Sanoja	—	HR
2026-06-30	Joe Mack	—	HR
2026-07-05	Luis Arraez	—	no HR
2026-07-05	Drew Gilbert	—	HR
2026-07-10	Luis Arraez	—	no HR
2026-07-10	Drew Gilbert	—	no HR

homerun firstmiddlelast = own city [rev_ordinal] = 140

140

40.0%

11.9%

3.35×

24.6%

discovery

Signals: homerun firstmiddlelast, own city [rev_ordinal]

1 distinct players · 30 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 0/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Luis García Jr.	140	no HR
2026-06-02	Luis García Jr.	140	no HR
2026-06-03	Luis García Jr.	140	no HR
2026-06-05	Luis García Jr.	140	HR
2026-06-06	Luis García Jr.	140	no HR
2026-06-09	Luis García Jr.	140	HR
2026-06-12	Luis García Jr.	140	no HR
2026-06-13	Luis García Jr.	140	HR
2026-06-14	Luis García Jr.	140	no HR
2026-06-15	Luis García Jr.	140	no HR
2026-06-16	Luis García Jr.	140	no HR
2026-06-17	Luis García Jr.	140	no HR

Showing first 12 of 30 qualifying player-days.

lastname = own moniker [chaldean] = 30

40.0%

11.9%

3.35×

24.6%

discovery

Signals: lastname, own moniker [chaldean]

1 distinct players · 30 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 0/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Luis García Jr.	30	no HR
2026-06-02	Luis García Jr.	30	no HR
2026-06-03	Luis García Jr.	30	no HR
2026-06-05	Luis García Jr.	30	HR
2026-06-06	Luis García Jr.	30	no HR
2026-06-09	Luis García Jr.	30	HR
2026-06-12	Luis García Jr.	30	no HR
2026-06-13	Luis García Jr.	30	HR
2026-06-14	Luis García Jr.	30	no HR
2026-06-15	Luis García Jr.	30	no HR
2026-06-16	Luis García Jr.	30	no HR
2026-06-17	Luis García Jr.	30	no HR

Showing first 12 of 30 qualifying player-days.

firstname = day of month [raw] = oppleagueabbr [ordinal] = 13

44.4%

11.9%

3.72×

24.6%

discovery

Signals: firstname, day of month [raw], oppleagueabbr [ordinal]

18 distinct players · 1 distinct dates · 2026-06-13 → 2026-06-13 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-13	Jose Altuve	13	HR
2026-06-13	Elias Díaz	13	no HR
2026-06-13	José Ramírez	13	no HR
2026-06-13	J.C. Escarra	13	no HR
2026-06-13	Jose Siri	13	HR
2026-06-13	Ali Sánchez	13	no HR
2026-06-13	Jahmai Jones	13	no HR
2026-06-13	Jake McCarthy	13	no HR
2026-06-13	José Fermín	13	no HR
2026-06-13	Samad Taylor	13	HR
2026-06-13	Jake Burger	13	HR
2026-06-13	Iván Herrera	13	HR

Showing first 12 of 18 qualifying player-days.

firstmiddlelast = homerun firstlast = 61

40.7%

11.9%

3.41×

24.5%

discovery

Signals: firstmiddlelast, homerun firstlast

1 distinct players · 27 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 0/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Luis García Jr.	61	no HR
2026-06-03	Luis García Jr.	61	no HR
2026-06-05	Luis García Jr.	61	HR
2026-06-06	Luis García Jr.	61	no HR
2026-06-09	Luis García Jr.	61	HR
2026-06-12	Luis García Jr.	61	no HR
2026-06-13	Luis García Jr.	61	HR
2026-06-14	Luis García Jr.	61	no HR
2026-06-15	Luis García Jr.	61	no HR
2026-06-16	Luis García Jr.	61	no HR
2026-06-17	Luis García Jr.	61	no HR
2026-06-19	Luis García Jr.	61	HR

Showing first 12 of 27 qualifying player-days.

firstname = homerun firstlast = 61

40.7%

11.9%

3.41×

24.5%

discovery

Signals: firstname, homerun firstlast

1 distinct players · 27 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 0/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Luis García Jr.	61	no HR
2026-06-03	Luis García Jr.	61	no HR
2026-06-05	Luis García Jr.	61	HR
2026-06-06	Luis García Jr.	61	no HR
2026-06-09	Luis García Jr.	61	HR
2026-06-12	Luis García Jr.	61	no HR
2026-06-13	Luis García Jr.	61	HR
2026-06-14	Luis García Jr.	61	no HR
2026-06-15	Luis García Jr.	61	no HR
2026-06-16	Luis García Jr.	61	no HR
2026-06-17	Luis García Jr.	61	no HR
2026-06-19	Luis García Jr.	61	HR

Showing first 12 of 27 qualifying player-days.

firstmiddlelast = firstname = homerun firstlast = 61

40.7%

11.9%

3.41×

24.5%

discovery

Signals: firstmiddlelast, firstname, homerun firstlast

1 distinct players · 27 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 0/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Luis García Jr.	61	no HR
2026-06-03	Luis García Jr.	61	no HR
2026-06-05	Luis García Jr.	61	HR
2026-06-06	Luis García Jr.	61	no HR
2026-06-09	Luis García Jr.	61	HR
2026-06-12	Luis García Jr.	61	no HR
2026-06-13	Luis García Jr.	61	HR
2026-06-14	Luis García Jr.	61	no HR
2026-06-15	Luis García Jr.	61	no HR
2026-06-16	Luis García Jr.	61	no HR
2026-06-17	Luis García Jr.	61	no HR
2026-06-19	Luis García Jr.	61	HR

Showing first 12 of 27 qualifying player-days.

doa weeks = oppleaguename [chaldean] = venue [reduction]

—

50.0%

11.9%

4.18×

23.7%

discovery

Signals: doa weeks, oppleaguename [chaldean], venue [reduction]

4 distinct players · 10 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample 0/1

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Mauricio Dubón	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Mauricio Dubón	—	HR
2026-06-04	Mauricio Dubón	—	HR
2026-06-12	Josh Naylor	—	HR
2026-06-13	Josh Naylor	—	no HR
2026-06-24	Jared Young	—	HR
2026-06-25	Jared Young	—	HR
2026-06-27	Jared Young	—	no HR
2026-07-08	Colt Emerson	—	no HR
2026-07-09	Colt Emerson	—	no HR

firstlast = opponent name [reduction] = pitcher [rev_reduction]

—

50.0%

11.9%

4.18×

23.7%

discovery

Signals: firstlast, opponent name [reduction], pitcher [rev_reduction]

10 distinct players · 7 distinct dates · 2026-06-04 → 2026-07-07 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-04	Ian Happ	—	HR
2026-06-09	Dansby Swanson	—	no HR
2026-06-09	Brice Turang	—	no HR
2026-06-14	Tyler Soderstrom	—	HR
2026-06-15	Ryan O'Hearn	—	no HR
2026-06-20	Zach Neto	—	no HR
2026-07-04	Alex Jackson	—	HR
2026-07-04	Trevor Larnach	—	HR
2026-07-07	Colt Keith	—	HR
2026-07-07	Hao-Yu Lee	—	no HR

firstlast = firstlast [rev_reduction] = opponent name [reduction]

—

50.0%

11.9%

4.18×

23.7%

discovery

Signals: firstlast, firstlast [rev_reduction], opponent name [reduction]

10 distinct players · 7 distinct dates · 2026-06-04 → 2026-07-07 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-04	Ian Happ	—	HR
2026-06-09	Dansby Swanson	—	no HR
2026-06-09	Brice Turang	—	no HR
2026-06-14	Tyler Soderstrom	—	HR
2026-06-15	Ryan O'Hearn	—	no HR
2026-06-20	Zach Neto	—	no HR
2026-07-04	Alex Jackson	—	HR
2026-07-04	Trevor Larnach	—	HR
2026-07-07	Colt Keith	—	HR
2026-07-07	Hao-Yu Lee	—	no HR

firstlast = firstlast [rev_reduction] = opponent name [reduction] = pitcher [rev_reduction]

—

50.0%

11.9%

4.18×

23.7%

discovery

Signals: firstlast, firstlast [rev_reduction], opponent name [reduction], pitcher [rev_reduction]

10 distinct players · 7 distinct dates · 2026-06-04 → 2026-07-07 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-04	Ian Happ	—	HR
2026-06-09	Dansby Swanson	—	no HR
2026-06-09	Brice Turang	—	no HR
2026-06-14	Tyler Soderstrom	—	HR
2026-06-15	Ryan O'Hearn	—	no HR
2026-06-20	Zach Neto	—	no HR
2026-07-04	Alex Jackson	—	HR
2026-07-04	Trevor Larnach	—	HR
2026-07-07	Colt Keith	—	HR
2026-07-07	Hao-Yu Lee	—	no HR

firstlast = dayordinal [rev_reduction] = firstlast [reduction]

—

50.0%

11.9%

4.18×

23.7%

discovery

Signals: firstlast, dayordinal [rev_reduction], firstlast [reduction]

10 distinct players · 6 distinct dates · 2026-06-04 → 2026-06-28 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-04	Ian Happ	—	HR
2026-06-13	Fernando Tatis Jr.	—	no HR
2026-06-13	Kazuma Okamoto	—	HR
2026-06-13	Justin Crawford	—	no HR
2026-06-16	Ernie Clement	—	no HR
2026-06-19	Gavin Sheets	—	HR
2026-06-27	Bryce Harper	—	HR
2026-06-27	Joey Loperfido	—	no HR
2026-06-28	Joc Pederson	—	HR
2026-06-28	Justin Foscue	—	no HR

firstlast = dayordinal [rev_reduction] = pitcher [reduction]

—

50.0%

11.9%

4.18×

23.7%

discovery

Signals: firstlast, dayordinal [rev_reduction], pitcher [reduction]

10 distinct players · 6 distinct dates · 2026-06-04 → 2026-06-28 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-04	Ian Happ	—	HR
2026-06-13	Fernando Tatis Jr.	—	no HR
2026-06-13	Kazuma Okamoto	—	HR
2026-06-13	Justin Crawford	—	no HR
2026-06-16	Ernie Clement	—	no HR
2026-06-19	Gavin Sheets	—	HR
2026-06-27	Bryce Harper	—	HR
2026-06-27	Joey Loperfido	—	no HR
2026-06-28	Joc Pederson	—	HR
2026-06-28	Justin Foscue	—	no HR

firstlast = dayordinal [rev_reduction] = firstlast [reduction] = pitcher [reduction]

—

50.0%

11.9%

4.18×

23.7%

discovery

Signals: firstlast, dayordinal [rev_reduction], firstlast [reduction], pitcher [reduction]

10 distinct players · 6 distinct dates · 2026-06-04 → 2026-06-28 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-04	Ian Happ	—	HR
2026-06-13	Fernando Tatis Jr.	—	no HR
2026-06-13	Kazuma Okamoto	—	HR
2026-06-13	Justin Crawford	—	no HR
2026-06-16	Ernie Clement	—	no HR
2026-06-19	Gavin Sheets	—	HR
2026-06-27	Bryce Harper	—	HR
2026-06-27	Joey Loperfido	—	no HR
2026-06-28	Joc Pederson	—	HR
2026-06-28	Justin Foscue	—	no HR

datemonthdayordinal [rev_reduction] = opponent name [reduction] = 51

50.0%

11.9%

4.18×

23.7%

discovery

Signals: datemonthdayordinal [rev_reduction], opponent name [reduction]

10 distinct players · 2 distinct dates · 2026-06-04 → 2026-07-04 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-04	Brandon Lowe	51	no HR
2026-06-04	Oneil Cruz	51	no HR
2026-06-04	Nick Gonzales	51	no HR
2026-07-04	Mike Yastrzemski	51	HR
2026-07-04	Matt Olson	51	no HR
2026-07-04	Eli White	51	HR
2026-07-04	Austin Riley	51	HR
2026-07-04	Taylor Walls	51	no HR
2026-07-04	Michael Harris II	51	HR
2026-07-04	Jonny DeLuca	51	HR

birth country [ordinal] = firstmiddlelast [reduction]

—

50.0%

11.9%

4.18×

23.7%

discovery

Signals: birth country [ordinal], firstmiddlelast [reduction]

10 distinct players · 4 distinct dates · 2026-06-12 → 2026-07-05 · out-of-sample 1/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-12	Luis Arraez	—	no HR
2026-06-12	Daniel Susac	—	no HR
2026-06-12	Bryce Eldridge	—	HR
2026-06-12	Jung Hoo Lee	—	no HR
2026-06-17	Hunter Goodman	—	HR
2026-06-24	Mark Vientos	—	HR
2026-06-24	Jared Young	—	HR
2026-06-24	A.J. Ewing	—	HR
2026-07-05	Iván Herrera	—	no HR
2026-07-05	Nelson Velázquez	—	no HR

birth country [ordinal] = firstmiddlelast [reduction] = 69

50.0%

11.9%

4.18×

23.7%

discovery

Signals: birth country [ordinal], firstmiddlelast [reduction]

10 distinct players · 4 distinct dates · 2026-06-12 → 2026-07-05 · out-of-sample 1/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-12	Luis Arraez	69	no HR
2026-06-12	Daniel Susac	69	no HR
2026-06-12	Bryce Eldridge	69	HR
2026-06-12	Jung Hoo Lee	69	no HR
2026-06-17	Hunter Goodman	69	HR
2026-06-24	Mark Vientos	69	HR
2026-06-24	Jared Young	69	HR
2026-06-24	A.J. Ewing	69	HR
2026-07-05	Iván Herrera	69	no HR
2026-07-05	Nelson Velázquez	69	no HR

dob weeks [raw] = venue [rev_reduction]

—

50.0%

11.9%

4.18×

23.7%

discovery

Signals: dob weeks [raw], venue [rev_reduction]

10 distinct players · 2 distinct dates · 2026-06-13 → 2026-06-14 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-13	Manny Machado	—	HR
2026-06-13	Xander Bogaerts	—	no HR
2026-06-13	Gavin Sheets	—	HR
2026-06-13	Rodolfo Durán	—	HR
2026-06-13	Freddy Fermin	—	no HR
2026-06-13	Samad Taylor	—	HR
2026-06-13	Jackson Merrill	—	HR
2026-06-14	Jake Mangum	—	no HR
2026-06-14	Jared Triolo	—	no HR
2026-06-14	Henry Davis	—	no HR

firstname = day of week [rev_reduction] = daycardinal [reduction]

—

50.0%

11.9%

4.18×

23.7%

discovery

Signals: firstname, day of week [rev_reduction], daycardinal [reduction]

10 distinct players · 1 distinct dates · 2026-06-18 → 2026-06-18 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-18	J.C. Escarra	—	no HR
2026-06-18	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	—	HR
2026-06-18	Juan Soto	—	HR
2026-06-18	Garrett Mitchell	—	no HR
2026-06-18	Iván Herrera	—	no HR
2026-06-18	Ezequiel Duran	—	HR
2026-06-18	Blaze Alexander	—	no HR
2026-06-18	Travis Bazzana	—	HR
2026-06-18	Blaze Jordan	—	no HR
2026-06-18	Wyatt Langford	—	HR

firstname = day of week [rev_reduction] = daycardinal [reduction] = 46

50.0%

11.9%

4.18×

23.7%

discovery

Signals: firstname, day of week [rev_reduction], daycardinal [reduction]

10 distinct players · 1 distinct dates · 2026-06-18 → 2026-06-18 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-18	J.C. Escarra	46	no HR
2026-06-18	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	46	HR
2026-06-18	Juan Soto	46	HR
2026-06-18	Garrett Mitchell	46	no HR
2026-06-18	Iván Herrera	46	no HR
2026-06-18	Ezequiel Duran	46	HR
2026-06-18	Blaze Alexander	46	no HR
2026-06-18	Travis Bazzana	46	HR
2026-06-18	Blaze Jordan	46	no HR
2026-06-18	Wyatt Langford	46	HR

firstname = firstmiddlelast [chaldean] = 76

46.2%

11.9%

3.86×

23.2%

discovery

Signals: firstname, firstmiddlelast [chaldean]

11 distinct players · 10 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-06-30 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Tommy Troy	76	HR
2026-06-02	Hunter Goodman	76	HR
2026-06-03	Seiya Suzuki	76	HR
2026-06-03	Michael Busch	76	no HR
2026-06-05	Tommy Troy	76	no HR
2026-06-14	Hunter Feduccia	76	no HR
2026-06-14	Hunter Goodman	76	HR
2026-06-16	Lane Thomas	76	HR
2026-06-16	Michael Massey	76	no HR
2026-06-19	Jo Adell	76	no HR
2026-06-21	Michael Siani	76	no HR
2026-06-22	Edmundo Sosa	76	no HR

Showing first 12 of 13 qualifying player-days.

birth city [ordinal] = opponent moniker [rev_ordinal]

—

46.2%

11.9%

3.86×

23.2%

discovery

Signals: birth city [ordinal], opponent moniker [rev_ordinal]

13 distinct players · 6 distinct dates · 2026-06-03 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-03	Jake Rogers	—	HR
2026-06-21	Curtis Mead	—	no HR
2026-06-21	CJ Abrams	—	HR
2026-06-21	Daylen Lile	—	no HR
2026-07-02	Billy Cook	—	no HR
2026-07-03	Nick Allen	—	no HR
2026-07-03	Yordan Alvarez	—	HR
2026-07-08	JJ Bleday	—	HR
2026-07-08	Elly De La Cruz	—	HR
2026-07-10	Victor Robles	—	no HR
2026-07-10	Josh Naylor	—	no HR
2026-07-10	Randy Arozarena	—	no HR

Showing first 12 of 13 qualifying player-days.

firstname = birth city [rev_reduction] = 27

46.2%

11.9%

3.86×

23.2%

discovery

Signals: firstname, birth city [rev_reduction]

9 distinct players · 7 distinct dates · 2026-06-09 → 2026-07-08 · out-of-sample 0/1

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-09	Chase Meidroth	27	no HR
2026-06-15	Jake Mangum	27	no HR
2026-06-16	Willy Adames	27	HR
2026-06-16	Matt Chapman	27	no HR
2026-06-16	Daniel Susac	27	no HR
2026-06-16	Jung Hoo Lee	27	HR
2026-06-17	Willy Adames	27	HR
2026-06-17	Matt Chapman	27	no HR
2026-06-17	Jung Hoo Lee	27	HR
2026-06-20	Denzer Guzman	27	HR
2026-07-07	Matt Vierling	27	no HR
2026-07-07	Colt Keith	27	HR

Showing first 12 of 13 qualifying player-days.

firstname = opponent city [reduction] = first name [ordinal] = 39

46.2%

11.9%

3.86×

23.2%

discovery

Signals: firstname, opponent city [reduction], first name [ordinal]

10 distinct players · 5 distinct dates · 2026-06-13 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-13	Mike Yastrzemski	39	no HR
2026-06-13	Austin Riley	39	no HR
2026-06-13	Michael Harris II	39	HR
2026-06-24	Michael Busch	39	HR
2026-06-29	George Springer	39	no HR
2026-06-29	Daulton Varsho	39	no HR
2026-07-04	Mike Yastrzemski	39	HR
2026-07-04	Austin Riley	39	HR
2026-07-04	Michael Harris II	39	HR
2026-07-04	Drake Baldwin	39	no HR
2026-07-09	Bobby Witt Jr.	39	HR
2026-07-09	Isaac Collins	39	no HR

Showing first 12 of 13 qualifying player-days.

firstmiddlelast = month day [reduction] = 51

42.1%

11.9%

3.52×

23.1%

discovery

Signals: firstmiddlelast, month day [reduction]

12 distinct players · 2 distinct dates · 2026-06-17 → 2026-06-30 · out-of-sample 0/11

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-17	Luis Arraez	51	HR
2026-06-17	Ian Happ	51	no HR
2026-06-17	Jeremy Peña	51	HR
2026-06-17	Iván Herrera	51	no HR
2026-06-17	Zach Neto	51	HR
2026-06-17	Joe Mack	51	HR
2026-06-17	Jimmy Crooks	51	no HR
2026-06-17	Ben Rice	51	no HR
2026-06-17	Jonah Cox	51	no HR
2026-06-30	Luis Arraez	51	HR
2026-06-30	Pavin Smith	51	no HR
2026-06-30	Ian Happ	51	no HR

Showing first 12 of 19 qualifying player-days.

doa weeks = firstname = age years [raw]

—

43.8%

11.9%

3.66×

23.1%

discovery

Signals: doa weeks, firstname, age years [raw]

16 distinct players · 13 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Christian Yelich	—	no HR
2026-06-06	Brice Turang	—	HR
2026-06-14	Byron Buxton	—	no HR
2026-06-14	JJ Bleday	—	HR
2026-06-18	Taylor Ward	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Alec Burleson	—	no HR
2026-06-24	Derek Hill	—	HR
2026-06-24	Otto Lopez	—	HR
2026-06-25	Daylen Lile	—	no HR
2026-07-01	Drew Millas	—	no HR
2026-07-03	Joe Mack	—	no HR
2026-07-04	Cal Raleigh	—	HR

Showing first 12 of 16 qualifying player-days.

opponent city [ordinal] = last name [rev_ordinal]

—

43.8%

11.9%

3.66×

23.1%

discovery

Signals: opponent city [ordinal], last name [rev_ordinal]

16 distinct players · 8 distinct dates · 2026-06-05 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 1/1

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-05	Isaac Paredes	—	HR
2026-06-16	Bryan Reynolds	—	HR
2026-06-16	Jared Triolo	—	no HR
2026-06-16	Spencer Horwitz	—	no HR
2026-06-17	Nick Kurtz	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Donovan Walton	—	HR
2026-06-21	Jo Adell	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Oswald Peraza	—	no HR
2026-06-29	J.T. Realmuto	—	no HR
2026-06-29	Trea Turner	—	HR
2026-07-03	Esteury Ruiz	—	no HR
2026-07-03	Owen Caissie	—	HR

Showing first 12 of 16 qualifying player-days.

lastname = opponent moniker [reduction] = rulingplanet [reduction]

—

43.8%

11.9%

3.66×

23.1%

discovery

Signals: lastname, opponent moniker [reduction], rulingplanet [reduction]

16 distinct players · 11 distinct dates · 2026-06-05 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample 0/1

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-05	Javier Sanoja	—	no HR
2026-06-12	Zach Neto	—	no HR
2026-06-14	Daniel Susac	—	no HR
2026-06-18	Bobby Witt Jr.	—	HR
2026-06-19	CJ Abrams	—	HR
2026-06-21	Lenyn Sosa	—	no HR
2026-06-24	Randal Grichuk	—	HR
2026-06-24	Miguel Vargas	—	no HR
2026-06-24	Luisangel Acuña	—	no HR
2026-07-01	Elias Díaz	—	HR
2026-07-02	Eugenio Suárez	—	no HR
2026-07-02	Manny Machado	—	HR

Showing first 12 of 16 qualifying player-days.

firstlast = doa weeks [raw] = 38

41.2%

11.9%

3.45×

21.6%

discovery

Signals: firstlast, doa weeks [raw]

15 distinct players · 12 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 0/1

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	James Wood	38	no HR
2026-06-03	José Ramírez	38	HR
2026-06-06	Matt Chapman	38	no HR
2026-06-06	Ian Happ	38	no HR
2026-06-06	Myles Straw	38	no HR
2026-06-12	Austin Slater	38	no HR
2026-06-14	TJ Rumfield	38	HR
2026-06-16	Ty France	38	no HR
2026-06-17	Ketel Marte	38	no HR
2026-06-19	Logan O'Hoppe	38	HR
2026-06-19	Zach Neto	38	HR
2026-06-23	James Wood	38	no HR

Showing first 12 of 17 qualifying player-days.

lastname = birth city [chaldean] = 31

41.2%

11.9%

3.45×

21.6%

discovery

Signals: lastname, birth city [chaldean]

12 distinct players · 9 distinct dates · 2026-06-04 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 1/1

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-04	Gary Sánchez	31	no HR
2026-06-04	Luis Rengifo	31	no HR
2026-06-04	Shea Langeliers	31	HR
2026-06-04	Jackson Chourio	31	HR
2026-06-06	Jackson Chourio	31	no HR
2026-06-09	Dylan Crews	31	no HR
2026-06-15	Hunter Goodman	31	no HR
2026-06-22	Mark Vientos	31	no HR
2026-06-22	Francisco Alvarez	31	HR
2026-06-22	A.J. Ewing	31	no HR
2026-06-24	Mark Vientos	31	HR
2026-06-24	Francisco Alvarez	31	HR

Showing first 12 of 17 qualifying player-days.

firstmiddlelast = own moniker [rev_ordinal] = 107

107

41.2%

11.9%

3.45×

21.6%

discovery

Signals: firstmiddlelast, own moniker [rev_ordinal]

1 distinct players · 17 distinct dates · 2026-06-09 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 1/9

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-09	Wyatt Langford	107	no HR
2026-06-12	Wyatt Langford	107	no HR
2026-06-13	Wyatt Langford	107	no HR
2026-06-14	Wyatt Langford	107	HR
2026-06-15	Wyatt Langford	107	no HR
2026-06-16	Wyatt Langford	107	no HR
2026-06-18	Wyatt Langford	107	HR
2026-06-19	Wyatt Langford	107	HR
2026-06-20	Wyatt Langford	107	no HR
2026-06-21	Wyatt Langford	107	HR
2026-06-22	Wyatt Langford	107	no HR
2026-06-23	Wyatt Langford	107	no HR

Showing first 12 of 17 qualifying player-days.

firstname = birth city [chaldean] = opponent city [rev_reduction] = 33

41.2%

11.9%

3.45×

21.6%

discovery

Signals: firstname, birth city [chaldean], opponent city [rev_reduction]

13 distinct players · 6 distinct dates · 2026-06-13 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-13	Mike Yastrzemski	33	no HR
2026-06-13	Ozzie Albies	33	no HR
2026-06-13	Austin Riley	33	no HR
2026-06-13	Michael Harris II	33	HR
2026-06-13	Ha-Seong Kim	33	no HR
2026-06-18	Bryson Stott	33	no HR
2026-06-24	Dansby Swanson	33	HR
2026-06-24	Michael Busch	33	HR
2026-06-29	Ernie Clement	33	no HR
2026-07-04	Mike Yastrzemski	33	HR
2026-07-04	Ozzie Albies	33	no HR
2026-07-04	Austin Riley	33	HR

Showing first 12 of 17 qualifying player-days.

firstname = day of week [rev_reduction] = daycardinal [rev_reduction]

—

41.2%

11.9%

3.45×

21.6%

discovery

Signals: firstname, day of week [rev_reduction], daycardinal [rev_reduction]

17 distinct players · 2 distinct dates · 2026-06-17 → 2026-06-27 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-17	Marcell Ozuna	—	HR
2026-06-17	Trea Turner	—	no HR
2026-06-17	Mauricio Dubón	—	HR
2026-06-17	Andy Pages	—	no HR
2026-06-17	Jackson Chourio	—	HR
2026-06-17	Braden Montgomery	—	no HR
2026-06-17	Jackson Merrill	—	HR
2026-06-17	Jackson Holliday	—	HR
2026-06-27	Starling Marte	—	no HR
2026-06-27	Bryce Harper	—	HR
2026-06-27	Joc Pederson	—	no HR
2026-06-27	Ketel Marte	—	HR

Showing first 12 of 17 qualifying player-days.

lastname = birth country [latin]

—

37.0%

11.9%

3.10×

21.5%

discovery

Signals: lastname, birth country [latin]

3 distinct players · 25 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 0/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Kazuma Okamoto	—	HR
2026-06-03	Kazuma Okamoto	—	no HR
2026-06-04	Kazuma Okamoto	—	no HR
2026-06-05	Kazuma Okamoto	—	no HR
2026-06-06	Kazuma Okamoto	—	no HR
2026-06-09	Kazuma Okamoto	—	no HR
2026-06-12	Kazuma Okamoto	—	HR
2026-06-13	Tyler Stephenson	—	no HR
2026-06-13	Kazuma Okamoto	—	HR
2026-06-14	Kazuma Okamoto	—	no HR
2026-06-16	Kazuma Okamoto	—	no HR
2026-06-17	Kazuma Okamoto	—	no HR

Showing first 12 of 27 qualifying player-days.

firstmiddlelast = last name [ordinal] = 60

42.9%

11.9%

3.59×

21.4%

discovery

Signals: firstmiddlelast, last name [ordinal]

10 distinct players · 9 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-06-25 · out-of-sample 0/2

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Nolan Arenado	60	HR
2026-06-01	Tommy Troy	60	HR
2026-06-02	Dansby Swanson	60	no HR
2026-06-02	Gleyber Torres	60	HR
2026-06-02	Lane Thomas	60	no HR
2026-06-02	Bobby Witt Jr.	60	no HR
2026-06-12	Chad Stevens	60	no HR
2026-06-13	Bryson Stott	60	no HR
2026-06-14	Nolan Arenado	60	no HR
2026-06-14	Tommy Troy	60	HR
2026-06-18	Travis Bazzana	60	HR
2026-06-19	Taylor Ward	60	no HR

Showing first 12 of 14 qualifying player-days.

homerun firstlast [chaldean] = oppdivisionname [chaldean] = opponent name [reduction]

—

42.9%

11.9%

3.59×

21.4%

discovery

Signals: homerun firstlast [chaldean], oppdivisionname [chaldean], opponent name [reduction]

14 distinct players · 5 distinct dates · 2026-06-03 → 2026-07-07 · out-of-sample 0/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-03	Rafael Devers	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Drew Gilbert	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Jung Hoo Lee	—	no HR
2026-06-09	Jonah Heim	—	HR
2026-06-09	Zack Gelof	—	HR
2026-06-09	Tyler Soderstrom	—	HR
2026-06-09	Max Muncy	—	no HR
2026-06-09	Henry Bolte	—	HR
2026-06-16	Travis Bazzana	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Joey Bart	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Michael Harris II	—	no HR
2026-07-07	Iván Herrera	—	HR

Showing first 12 of 14 qualifying player-days.

birth city [rev_reduction] = homerun firstlast [chaldean] = oppdivisionname [chaldean] = opponent name [reduction]

—

42.9%

11.9%

3.59×

21.4%

discovery

Signals: birth city [rev_reduction], homerun firstlast [chaldean], oppdivisionname [chaldean], opponent name [reduction]

14 distinct players · 5 distinct dates · 2026-06-03 → 2026-07-07 · out-of-sample 0/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-03	Rafael Devers	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Drew Gilbert	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Jung Hoo Lee	—	no HR
2026-06-09	Jonah Heim	—	HR
2026-06-09	Zack Gelof	—	HR
2026-06-09	Tyler Soderstrom	—	HR
2026-06-09	Max Muncy	—	no HR
2026-06-09	Henry Bolte	—	HR
2026-06-16	Travis Bazzana	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Joey Bart	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Michael Harris II	—	no HR
2026-07-07	Iván Herrera	—	HR

Showing first 12 of 14 qualifying player-days.

birth city [rev_reduction] = homerun firstlast [chaldean] = opponent name [reduction] = 73

42.9%

11.9%

3.59×

21.4%

discovery

Signals: birth city [rev_reduction], homerun firstlast [chaldean], opponent name [reduction]

14 distinct players · 5 distinct dates · 2026-06-03 → 2026-07-07 · out-of-sample 0/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-03	Rafael Devers	73	no HR
2026-06-03	Drew Gilbert	73	no HR
2026-06-03	Jung Hoo Lee	73	no HR
2026-06-09	Jonah Heim	73	HR
2026-06-09	Zack Gelof	73	HR
2026-06-09	Tyler Soderstrom	73	HR
2026-06-09	Max Muncy	73	no HR
2026-06-09	Henry Bolte	73	HR
2026-06-16	Travis Bazzana	73	no HR
2026-06-21	Joey Bart	73	no HR
2026-06-21	Michael Harris II	73	no HR
2026-07-07	Iván Herrera	73	HR

Showing first 12 of 14 qualifying player-days.

birth city [rev_reduction] = oppdivisionname [chaldean] = opponent name [reduction] = 73

42.9%

11.9%

3.59×

21.4%

discovery

Signals: birth city [rev_reduction], oppdivisionname [chaldean], opponent name [reduction]

14 distinct players · 5 distinct dates · 2026-06-03 → 2026-07-07 · out-of-sample 0/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-03	Rafael Devers	73	no HR
2026-06-03	Drew Gilbert	73	no HR
2026-06-03	Jung Hoo Lee	73	no HR
2026-06-09	Jonah Heim	73	HR
2026-06-09	Zack Gelof	73	HR
2026-06-09	Tyler Soderstrom	73	HR
2026-06-09	Max Muncy	73	no HR
2026-06-09	Henry Bolte	73	HR
2026-06-16	Travis Bazzana	73	no HR
2026-06-21	Joey Bart	73	no HR
2026-06-21	Michael Harris II	73	no HR
2026-07-07	Iván Herrera	73	HR

Showing first 12 of 14 qualifying player-days.

birth city [rev_reduction] = homerun firstlast [chaldean] = oppdivisionname [chaldean]

—

42.9%

11.9%

3.59×

21.4%

discovery

Signals: birth city [rev_reduction], homerun firstlast [chaldean], oppdivisionname [chaldean]

14 distinct players · 5 distinct dates · 2026-06-03 → 2026-07-07 · out-of-sample 0/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-03	Rafael Devers	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Drew Gilbert	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Jung Hoo Lee	—	no HR
2026-06-09	Jonah Heim	—	HR
2026-06-09	Zack Gelof	—	HR
2026-06-09	Tyler Soderstrom	—	HR
2026-06-09	Max Muncy	—	no HR
2026-06-09	Henry Bolte	—	HR
2026-06-16	Travis Bazzana	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Joey Bart	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Michael Harris II	—	no HR
2026-07-07	Iván Herrera	—	HR

Showing first 12 of 14 qualifying player-days.

birth city [rev_reduction] = homerun firstlast [chaldean] = 73

42.9%

11.9%

3.59×

21.4%

discovery

Signals: birth city [rev_reduction], homerun firstlast [chaldean]

14 distinct players · 5 distinct dates · 2026-06-03 → 2026-07-07 · out-of-sample 0/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-03	Rafael Devers	73	no HR
2026-06-03	Drew Gilbert	73	no HR
2026-06-03	Jung Hoo Lee	73	no HR
2026-06-09	Jonah Heim	73	HR
2026-06-09	Zack Gelof	73	HR
2026-06-09	Tyler Soderstrom	73	HR
2026-06-09	Max Muncy	73	no HR
2026-06-09	Henry Bolte	73	HR
2026-06-16	Travis Bazzana	73	no HR
2026-06-21	Joey Bart	73	no HR
2026-06-21	Michael Harris II	73	no HR
2026-07-07	Iván Herrera	73	HR

Showing first 12 of 14 qualifying player-days.

homerun firstlast [chaldean] = oppdivisionname [chaldean] = 73

42.9%

11.9%

3.59×

21.4%

discovery

Signals: homerun firstlast [chaldean], oppdivisionname [chaldean]

14 distinct players · 5 distinct dates · 2026-06-03 → 2026-07-07 · out-of-sample 0/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-03	Rafael Devers	73	no HR
2026-06-03	Drew Gilbert	73	no HR
2026-06-03	Jung Hoo Lee	73	no HR
2026-06-09	Jonah Heim	73	HR
2026-06-09	Zack Gelof	73	HR
2026-06-09	Tyler Soderstrom	73	HR
2026-06-09	Max Muncy	73	no HR
2026-06-09	Henry Bolte	73	HR
2026-06-16	Travis Bazzana	73	no HR
2026-06-21	Joey Bart	73	no HR
2026-06-21	Michael Harris II	73	no HR
2026-07-07	Iván Herrera	73	HR

Showing first 12 of 14 qualifying player-days.

homerun firstlast [chaldean] = oppdivisionname [chaldean] = opponent name [reduction] = 73

42.9%

11.9%

3.59×

21.4%

discovery

Signals: homerun firstlast [chaldean], oppdivisionname [chaldean], opponent name [reduction]

14 distinct players · 5 distinct dates · 2026-06-03 → 2026-07-07 · out-of-sample 0/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-03	Rafael Devers	73	no HR
2026-06-03	Drew Gilbert	73	no HR
2026-06-03	Jung Hoo Lee	73	no HR
2026-06-09	Jonah Heim	73	HR
2026-06-09	Zack Gelof	73	HR
2026-06-09	Tyler Soderstrom	73	HR
2026-06-09	Max Muncy	73	no HR
2026-06-09	Henry Bolte	73	HR
2026-06-16	Travis Bazzana	73	no HR
2026-06-21	Joey Bart	73	no HR
2026-06-21	Michael Harris II	73	no HR
2026-07-07	Iván Herrera	73	HR

Showing first 12 of 14 qualifying player-days.

birth city [rev_reduction] = homerun firstlast [chaldean] = opponent name [reduction]

—

42.9%

11.9%

3.59×

21.4%

discovery

Signals: birth city [rev_reduction], homerun firstlast [chaldean], opponent name [reduction]

14 distinct players · 5 distinct dates · 2026-06-03 → 2026-07-07 · out-of-sample 0/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-03	Rafael Devers	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Drew Gilbert	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Jung Hoo Lee	—	no HR
2026-06-09	Jonah Heim	—	HR
2026-06-09	Zack Gelof	—	HR
2026-06-09	Tyler Soderstrom	—	HR
2026-06-09	Max Muncy	—	no HR
2026-06-09	Henry Bolte	—	HR
2026-06-16	Travis Bazzana	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Joey Bart	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Michael Harris II	—	no HR
2026-07-07	Iván Herrera	—	HR

Showing first 12 of 14 qualifying player-days.

homerun firstlast [chaldean] = opponent name [reduction] = 73

42.9%

11.9%

3.59×

21.4%

discovery

Signals: homerun firstlast [chaldean], opponent name [reduction]

14 distinct players · 5 distinct dates · 2026-06-03 → 2026-07-07 · out-of-sample 0/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-03	Rafael Devers	73	no HR
2026-06-03	Drew Gilbert	73	no HR
2026-06-03	Jung Hoo Lee	73	no HR
2026-06-09	Jonah Heim	73	HR
2026-06-09	Zack Gelof	73	HR
2026-06-09	Tyler Soderstrom	73	HR
2026-06-09	Max Muncy	73	no HR
2026-06-09	Henry Bolte	73	HR
2026-06-16	Travis Bazzana	73	no HR
2026-06-21	Joey Bart	73	no HR
2026-06-21	Michael Harris II	73	no HR
2026-07-07	Iván Herrera	73	HR

Showing first 12 of 14 qualifying player-days.

birth city [rev_reduction] = oppdivisionname [chaldean] = opponent name [reduction]

—

42.9%

11.9%

3.59×

21.4%

discovery

Signals: birth city [rev_reduction], oppdivisionname [chaldean], opponent name [reduction]

14 distinct players · 5 distinct dates · 2026-06-03 → 2026-07-07 · out-of-sample 0/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-03	Rafael Devers	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Drew Gilbert	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Jung Hoo Lee	—	no HR
2026-06-09	Jonah Heim	—	HR
2026-06-09	Zack Gelof	—	HR
2026-06-09	Tyler Soderstrom	—	HR
2026-06-09	Max Muncy	—	no HR
2026-06-09	Henry Bolte	—	HR
2026-06-16	Travis Bazzana	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Joey Bart	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Michael Harris II	—	no HR
2026-07-07	Iván Herrera	—	HR

Showing first 12 of 14 qualifying player-days.

birth city [rev_reduction] = homerun firstlast [chaldean] = oppdivisionname [chaldean] = opponent name [reduction] = 73

42.9%

11.9%

3.59×

21.4%

discovery

Signals: birth city [rev_reduction], homerun firstlast [chaldean], oppdivisionname [chaldean], opponent name [reduction]

14 distinct players · 5 distinct dates · 2026-06-03 → 2026-07-07 · out-of-sample 0/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-03	Rafael Devers	73	no HR
2026-06-03	Drew Gilbert	73	no HR
2026-06-03	Jung Hoo Lee	73	no HR
2026-06-09	Jonah Heim	73	HR
2026-06-09	Zack Gelof	73	HR
2026-06-09	Tyler Soderstrom	73	HR
2026-06-09	Max Muncy	73	no HR
2026-06-09	Henry Bolte	73	HR
2026-06-16	Travis Bazzana	73	no HR
2026-06-21	Joey Bart	73	no HR
2026-06-21	Michael Harris II	73	no HR
2026-07-07	Iván Herrera	73	HR

Showing first 12 of 14 qualifying player-days.

birth city [rev_reduction] = homerun firstlast [chaldean] = oppdivisionname [chaldean] = 73

42.9%

11.9%

3.59×

21.4%

discovery

Signals: birth city [rev_reduction], homerun firstlast [chaldean], oppdivisionname [chaldean]

14 distinct players · 5 distinct dates · 2026-06-03 → 2026-07-07 · out-of-sample 0/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-03	Rafael Devers	73	no HR
2026-06-03	Drew Gilbert	73	no HR
2026-06-03	Jung Hoo Lee	73	no HR
2026-06-09	Jonah Heim	73	HR
2026-06-09	Zack Gelof	73	HR
2026-06-09	Tyler Soderstrom	73	HR
2026-06-09	Max Muncy	73	no HR
2026-06-09	Henry Bolte	73	HR
2026-06-16	Travis Bazzana	73	no HR
2026-06-21	Joey Bart	73	no HR
2026-06-21	Michael Harris II	73	no HR
2026-07-07	Iván Herrera	73	HR

Showing first 12 of 14 qualifying player-days.

firstlast = oppdivisionabbr [rev_reduction] = rulingplanet [rev_ordinal] = 54

42.9%

11.9%

3.59×

21.4%

discovery

Signals: firstlast, oppdivisionabbr [rev_reduction], rulingplanet [rev_ordinal]

10 distinct players · 6 distinct dates · 2026-06-05 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 0/2

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-05	Austin Riley	54	no HR
2026-06-12	Kody Clemens	54	HR
2026-06-19	Salvador Perez	54	no HR
2026-06-19	George Springer	54	HR
2026-06-19	Lane Thomas	54	no HR
2026-06-19	Austin Riley	54	no HR
2026-06-19	Charles McAdoo	54	no HR
2026-06-26	Elly De La Cruz	54	no HR
2026-06-26	Esmerlyn Valdez	54	HR
2026-07-03	Colton Cowser	54	no HR
2026-07-03	Daylen Lile	54	HR
2026-07-10	Austin Riley	54	no HR

Showing first 12 of 14 qualifying player-days.

firstlast = oppdivisionabbr [rev_reduction] = rulingplanet [rev_ordinal]

—

42.9%

11.9%

3.59×

21.4%

discovery

Signals: firstlast, oppdivisionabbr [rev_reduction], rulingplanet [rev_ordinal]

10 distinct players · 6 distinct dates · 2026-06-05 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 0/2

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-05	Austin Riley	—	no HR
2026-06-12	Kody Clemens	—	HR
2026-06-19	Salvador Perez	—	no HR
2026-06-19	George Springer	—	HR
2026-06-19	Lane Thomas	—	no HR
2026-06-19	Austin Riley	—	no HR
2026-06-19	Charles McAdoo	—	no HR
2026-06-26	Elly De La Cruz	—	no HR
2026-06-26	Esmerlyn Valdez	—	HR
2026-07-03	Colton Cowser	—	no HR
2026-07-03	Daylen Lile	—	HR
2026-07-10	Austin Riley	—	no HR

Showing first 12 of 14 qualifying player-days.

firstmiddlelast = oppleagueabbr [latin] = last name [ordinal]

—

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: firstmiddlelast, oppleagueabbr [latin], last name [ordinal]

7 distinct players · 8 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-06-25 · out-of-sample 0/2

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Nolan Arenado	—	HR
2026-06-01	Tommy Troy	—	HR
2026-06-02	Lane Thomas	—	no HR
2026-06-02	Bobby Witt Jr.	—	no HR
2026-06-13	Bryson Stott	—	no HR
2026-06-14	Nolan Arenado	—	no HR
2026-06-14	Tommy Troy	—	HR
2026-06-18	Travis Bazzana	—	HR
2026-06-19	Taylor Ward	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Taylor Ward	—	HR
2026-06-25	Bryson Stott	—	no HR

firstmiddlelast = oppleagueabbr [latin] = last name [ordinal] = 60

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: firstmiddlelast, oppleagueabbr [latin], last name [ordinal]

7 distinct players · 8 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-06-25 · out-of-sample 0/2

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Nolan Arenado	60	HR
2026-06-01	Tommy Troy	60	HR
2026-06-02	Lane Thomas	60	no HR
2026-06-02	Bobby Witt Jr.	60	no HR
2026-06-13	Bryson Stott	60	no HR
2026-06-14	Nolan Arenado	60	no HR
2026-06-14	Tommy Troy	60	HR
2026-06-18	Travis Bazzana	60	HR
2026-06-19	Taylor Ward	60	no HR
2026-06-21	Taylor Ward	60	HR
2026-06-25	Bryson Stott	60	no HR

doa weeks = oppdivisionabbr [rev_reduction] = 33

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: doa weeks, oppdivisionabbr [rev_reduction]

7 distinct players · 8 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-07-01 · out-of-sample 0/2

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Mookie Betts	33	no HR
2026-06-01	Ketel Marte	33	HR
2026-06-01	Ryan Waldschmidt	33	no HR
2026-06-02	Ketel Marte	33	no HR
2026-06-04	Bryce Harper	33	no HR
2026-06-04	Ketel Marte	33	HR
2026-06-09	Noelvi Marte	33	no HR
2026-06-12	Zack Gelof	33	no HR
2026-06-13	Zack Gelof	33	HR
2026-06-30	Michael Busch	33	HR
2026-07-01	Michael Busch	33	HR

next career HR with team = birth country [rev_ordinal] = 40

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: next career HR with team, birth country [rev_ordinal]

7 distinct players · 9 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Will Benson	40	HR
2026-06-02	Zack Gelof	40	no HR
2026-06-03	Zack Gelof	40	no HR
2026-06-05	Zack Gelof	40	no HR
2026-06-09	Edmundo Sosa	40	no HR
2026-06-09	Kyle Manzardo	40	no HR
2026-06-12	Ceddanne Rafaela	40	HR
2026-06-13	Edmundo Sosa	40	HR
2026-06-30	Luis Arraez	40	HR
2026-07-08	Dominic Canzone	40	no HR
2026-07-09	Dominic Canzone	40	HR

next career HR = birth country [rev_ordinal] = 40

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: next career HR, birth country [rev_ordinal]

7 distinct players · 9 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Will Benson	40	HR
2026-06-02	Zack Gelof	40	no HR
2026-06-03	Zack Gelof	40	no HR
2026-06-05	Zack Gelof	40	no HR
2026-06-09	Edmundo Sosa	40	no HR
2026-06-09	Kyle Manzardo	40	no HR
2026-06-12	Ceddanne Rafaela	40	HR
2026-06-13	Edmundo Sosa	40	HR
2026-06-30	Luis Arraez	40	HR
2026-07-08	Dominic Canzone	40	no HR
2026-07-09	Dominic Canzone	40	HR

next career HR = next career HR with team = birth country [rev_ordinal] = 40

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: next career HR, next career HR with team, birth country [rev_ordinal]

7 distinct players · 9 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Will Benson	40	HR
2026-06-02	Zack Gelof	40	no HR
2026-06-03	Zack Gelof	40	no HR
2026-06-05	Zack Gelof	40	no HR
2026-06-09	Edmundo Sosa	40	no HR
2026-06-09	Kyle Manzardo	40	no HR
2026-06-12	Ceddanne Rafaela	40	HR
2026-06-13	Edmundo Sosa	40	HR
2026-06-30	Luis Arraez	40	HR
2026-07-08	Dominic Canzone	40	no HR
2026-07-09	Dominic Canzone	40	HR

dateyearfull [rev_reduction] = homerun firstmiddlelast [rev_reduction]

—

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: dateyearfull [rev_reduction], homerun firstmiddlelast [rev_reduction]

11 distinct players · 7 distinct dates · 2026-06-03 → 2026-07-03 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-03	Max Muncy	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Alex Freeland	—	no HR
2026-06-09	Riley Greene	—	HR
2026-06-09	Dillon Dingler	—	HR
2026-06-14	Hunter Goodman	—	HR
2026-06-19	Tyler Heineman	—	no HR
2026-06-19	Michael Massey	—	no HR
2026-06-26	Coby Mayo	—	no HR
2026-06-30	Owen Caissie	—	HR
2026-06-30	Michael Busch	—	HR
2026-07-03	Drew Gilbert	—	no HR

firstlast = day of week [rev_reduction] = venue [reduction]

—

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: firstlast, day of week [rev_reduction], venue [reduction]

4 distinct players · 6 distinct dates · 2026-06-04 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample 1/2

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-04	Casey Schmitt	—	HR
2026-06-13	Byron Buxton	—	HR
2026-06-13	Tristan Gray	—	no HR
2026-06-13	Royce Lewis	—	HR
2026-06-20	Byron Buxton	—	HR
2026-06-20	Tristan Gray	—	no HR
2026-06-20	Royce Lewis	—	no HR
2026-06-25	Casey Schmitt	—	no HR
2026-07-04	Byron Buxton	—	no HR
2026-07-04	Royce Lewis	—	no HR
2026-07-09	Casey Schmitt	—	HR

opponent city [ordinal] = opponent name [ordinal] = opponent moniker [ordinal] = last name [rev_ordinal]

—

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: opponent city [ordinal], opponent name [ordinal], opponent moniker [ordinal], last name [rev_ordinal]

11 distinct players · 4 distinct dates · 2026-06-05 → 2026-07-03 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-05	Isaac Paredes	—	HR
2026-06-16	Bryan Reynolds	—	HR
2026-06-16	Jared Triolo	—	no HR
2026-06-16	Spencer Horwitz	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Donovan Walton	—	HR
2026-06-21	Jo Adell	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Oswald Peraza	—	no HR
2026-07-03	Esteury Ruiz	—	no HR
2026-07-03	Owen Caissie	—	HR
2026-07-03	Javier Sanoja	—	no HR
2026-07-03	Jakob Marsee	—	HR

opponent city [ordinal] = opponent moniker [ordinal] = last name [rev_ordinal] = 97

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: opponent city [ordinal], opponent moniker [ordinal], last name [rev_ordinal]

11 distinct players · 4 distinct dates · 2026-06-05 → 2026-07-03 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-05	Isaac Paredes	97	HR
2026-06-16	Bryan Reynolds	97	HR
2026-06-16	Jared Triolo	97	no HR
2026-06-16	Spencer Horwitz	97	no HR
2026-06-21	Donovan Walton	97	HR
2026-06-21	Jo Adell	97	no HR
2026-06-21	Oswald Peraza	97	no HR
2026-07-03	Esteury Ruiz	97	no HR
2026-07-03	Owen Caissie	97	HR
2026-07-03	Javier Sanoja	97	no HR
2026-07-03	Jakob Marsee	97	HR

opponent city [ordinal] = opponent name [ordinal] = opponent moniker [ordinal] = last name [rev_ordinal] = 97

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: opponent city [ordinal], opponent name [ordinal], opponent moniker [ordinal], last name [rev_ordinal]

11 distinct players · 4 distinct dates · 2026-06-05 → 2026-07-03 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-05	Isaac Paredes	97	HR
2026-06-16	Bryan Reynolds	97	HR
2026-06-16	Jared Triolo	97	no HR
2026-06-16	Spencer Horwitz	97	no HR
2026-06-21	Donovan Walton	97	HR
2026-06-21	Jo Adell	97	no HR
2026-06-21	Oswald Peraza	97	no HR
2026-07-03	Esteury Ruiz	97	no HR
2026-07-03	Owen Caissie	97	HR
2026-07-03	Javier Sanoja	97	no HR
2026-07-03	Jakob Marsee	97	HR

opponent moniker [ordinal] = last name [rev_ordinal] = 97

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: opponent moniker [ordinal], last name [rev_ordinal]

11 distinct players · 4 distinct dates · 2026-06-05 → 2026-07-03 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-05	Isaac Paredes	97	HR
2026-06-16	Bryan Reynolds	97	HR
2026-06-16	Jared Triolo	97	no HR
2026-06-16	Spencer Horwitz	97	no HR
2026-06-21	Donovan Walton	97	HR
2026-06-21	Jo Adell	97	no HR
2026-06-21	Oswald Peraza	97	no HR
2026-07-03	Esteury Ruiz	97	no HR
2026-07-03	Owen Caissie	97	HR
2026-07-03	Javier Sanoja	97	no HR
2026-07-03	Jakob Marsee	97	HR

opponent city [ordinal] = last name [rev_ordinal] = 97

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: opponent city [ordinal], last name [rev_ordinal]

11 distinct players · 4 distinct dates · 2026-06-05 → 2026-07-03 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-05	Isaac Paredes	97	HR
2026-06-16	Bryan Reynolds	97	HR
2026-06-16	Jared Triolo	97	no HR
2026-06-16	Spencer Horwitz	97	no HR
2026-06-21	Donovan Walton	97	HR
2026-06-21	Jo Adell	97	no HR
2026-06-21	Oswald Peraza	97	no HR
2026-07-03	Esteury Ruiz	97	no HR
2026-07-03	Owen Caissie	97	HR
2026-07-03	Javier Sanoja	97	no HR
2026-07-03	Jakob Marsee	97	HR

opponent city [ordinal] = opponent name [ordinal] = last name [rev_ordinal]

—

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: opponent city [ordinal], opponent name [ordinal], last name [rev_ordinal]

11 distinct players · 4 distinct dates · 2026-06-05 → 2026-07-03 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-05	Isaac Paredes	—	HR
2026-06-16	Bryan Reynolds	—	HR
2026-06-16	Jared Triolo	—	no HR
2026-06-16	Spencer Horwitz	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Donovan Walton	—	HR
2026-06-21	Jo Adell	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Oswald Peraza	—	no HR
2026-07-03	Esteury Ruiz	—	no HR
2026-07-03	Owen Caissie	—	HR
2026-07-03	Javier Sanoja	—	no HR
2026-07-03	Jakob Marsee	—	HR

opponent name [ordinal] = last name [rev_ordinal] = 97

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: opponent name [ordinal], last name [rev_ordinal]

11 distinct players · 4 distinct dates · 2026-06-05 → 2026-07-03 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-05	Isaac Paredes	97	HR
2026-06-16	Bryan Reynolds	97	HR
2026-06-16	Jared Triolo	97	no HR
2026-06-16	Spencer Horwitz	97	no HR
2026-06-21	Donovan Walton	97	HR
2026-06-21	Jo Adell	97	no HR
2026-06-21	Oswald Peraza	97	no HR
2026-07-03	Esteury Ruiz	97	no HR
2026-07-03	Owen Caissie	97	HR
2026-07-03	Javier Sanoja	97	no HR
2026-07-03	Jakob Marsee	97	HR

opponent name [ordinal] = opponent moniker [ordinal] = last name [rev_ordinal]

—

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: opponent name [ordinal], opponent moniker [ordinal], last name [rev_ordinal]

11 distinct players · 4 distinct dates · 2026-06-05 → 2026-07-03 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-05	Isaac Paredes	—	HR
2026-06-16	Bryan Reynolds	—	HR
2026-06-16	Jared Triolo	—	no HR
2026-06-16	Spencer Horwitz	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Donovan Walton	—	HR
2026-06-21	Jo Adell	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Oswald Peraza	—	no HR
2026-07-03	Esteury Ruiz	—	no HR
2026-07-03	Owen Caissie	—	HR
2026-07-03	Javier Sanoja	—	no HR
2026-07-03	Jakob Marsee	—	HR

opponent city [ordinal] = opponent name [ordinal] = last name [rev_ordinal] = 97

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: opponent city [ordinal], opponent name [ordinal], last name [rev_ordinal]

11 distinct players · 4 distinct dates · 2026-06-05 → 2026-07-03 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-05	Isaac Paredes	97	HR
2026-06-16	Bryan Reynolds	97	HR
2026-06-16	Jared Triolo	97	no HR
2026-06-16	Spencer Horwitz	97	no HR
2026-06-21	Donovan Walton	97	HR
2026-06-21	Jo Adell	97	no HR
2026-06-21	Oswald Peraza	97	no HR
2026-07-03	Esteury Ruiz	97	no HR
2026-07-03	Owen Caissie	97	HR
2026-07-03	Javier Sanoja	97	no HR
2026-07-03	Jakob Marsee	97	HR

opponent name [ordinal] = opponent moniker [ordinal] = last name [rev_ordinal] = 97

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: opponent name [ordinal], opponent moniker [ordinal], last name [rev_ordinal]

11 distinct players · 4 distinct dates · 2026-06-05 → 2026-07-03 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-05	Isaac Paredes	97	HR
2026-06-16	Bryan Reynolds	97	HR
2026-06-16	Jared Triolo	97	no HR
2026-06-16	Spencer Horwitz	97	no HR
2026-06-21	Donovan Walton	97	HR
2026-06-21	Jo Adell	97	no HR
2026-06-21	Oswald Peraza	97	no HR
2026-07-03	Esteury Ruiz	97	no HR
2026-07-03	Owen Caissie	97	HR
2026-07-03	Javier Sanoja	97	no HR
2026-07-03	Jakob Marsee	97	HR

opponent city [ordinal] = opponent moniker [ordinal] = last name [rev_ordinal]

—

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: opponent city [ordinal], opponent moniker [ordinal], last name [rev_ordinal]

11 distinct players · 4 distinct dates · 2026-06-05 → 2026-07-03 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-05	Isaac Paredes	—	HR
2026-06-16	Bryan Reynolds	—	HR
2026-06-16	Jared Triolo	—	no HR
2026-06-16	Spencer Horwitz	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Donovan Walton	—	HR
2026-06-21	Jo Adell	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Oswald Peraza	—	no HR
2026-07-03	Esteury Ruiz	—	no HR
2026-07-03	Owen Caissie	—	HR
2026-07-03	Javier Sanoja	—	no HR
2026-07-03	Jakob Marsee	—	HR

month day [raw] = last name [ordinal]

—

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: month day [raw], last name [ordinal]

11 distinct players · 4 distinct dates · 2026-06-05 → 2026-07-06 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-05	Daylen Lile	—	HR
2026-06-09	Jonah Heim	—	HR
2026-06-09	Lawrence Butler	—	no HR
2026-06-09	Alika Williams	—	no HR
2026-07-01	Kevin Alcántara	—	no HR
2026-07-01	Pete Crow-Armstrong	—	HR
2026-07-06	Lane Thomas	—	HR
2026-07-06	Nick Loftin	—	no HR
2026-07-06	Tyler Tolbert	—	HR
2026-07-06	Michael Massey	—	no HR
2026-07-06	Jac Caglianone	—	no HR

homerun firstlast = homerun firstlast [chaldean] = 83

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: homerun firstlast, homerun firstlast [chaldean]

9 distinct players · 8 distinct dates · 2026-06-06 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 0/1

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-06	Chase Meidroth	83	no HR
2026-06-16	Shohei Ohtani	83	HR
2026-06-16	Wyatt Langford	83	no HR
2026-06-22	Shohei Ohtani	83	HR
2026-06-22	Dalton Rushing	83	no HR
2026-06-24	Brooks Lee	83	no HR
2026-07-01	Blaze Alexander	83	no HR
2026-07-03	Xander Bogaerts	83	no HR
2026-07-04	Jonny DeLuca	83	HR
2026-07-10	Vaughn Grissom	83	HR
2026-07-10	Wyatt Langford	83	HR

lastname = opponent city [chaldean] = venue [chaldean] = 29

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: lastname, opponent city [chaldean], venue [chaldean]

2 distinct players · 6 distinct dates · 2026-06-15 → 2026-06-28 · out-of-sample 0/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-15	Ryan O'Hearn	29	no HR
2026-06-15	Esmerlyn Valdez	29	no HR
2026-06-16	Ryan O'Hearn	29	no HR
2026-06-17	Ryan O'Hearn	29	HR
2026-06-17	Esmerlyn Valdez	29	no HR
2026-06-26	Ryan O'Hearn	29	no HR
2026-06-26	Esmerlyn Valdez	29	HR
2026-06-27	Ryan O'Hearn	29	no HR
2026-06-27	Esmerlyn Valdez	29	HR
2026-06-28	Ryan O'Hearn	29	HR
2026-06-28	Esmerlyn Valdez	29	HR

jersey = monthname [rev_reduction] = opponent city [chaldean] = 22

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: jersey, monthname [rev_reduction], opponent city [chaldean]

3 distinct players · 11 distinct dates · 2026-06-22 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-22	Carter Jensen	22	no HR
2026-06-23	Carter Jensen	22	no HR
2026-06-24	Carter Jensen	22	no HR
2026-06-25	Carter Jensen	22	HR
2026-06-27	Max Kepler	22	no HR
2026-06-30	Carter Jensen	22	HR
2026-07-01	Carter Jensen	22	no HR
2026-07-02	Carter Jensen	22	HR
2026-07-06	Ben Rice	22	HR
2026-07-08	Ben Rice	22	no HR
2026-07-09	Ben Rice	22	HR

jersey = monthname [rev_reduction] = opponent city [chaldean]

—

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: jersey, monthname [rev_reduction], opponent city [chaldean]

3 distinct players · 11 distinct dates · 2026-06-22 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-22	Carter Jensen	—	no HR
2026-06-23	Carter Jensen	—	no HR
2026-06-24	Carter Jensen	—	no HR
2026-06-25	Carter Jensen	—	HR
2026-06-27	Max Kepler	—	no HR
2026-06-30	Carter Jensen	—	HR
2026-07-01	Carter Jensen	—	no HR
2026-07-02	Carter Jensen	—	HR
2026-07-06	Ben Rice	—	HR
2026-07-08	Ben Rice	—	no HR
2026-07-09	Ben Rice	—	HR

jersey = opponent city [chaldean] = 22

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: jersey, opponent city [chaldean]

3 distinct players · 11 distinct dates · 2026-06-22 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-22	Carter Jensen	22	no HR
2026-06-23	Carter Jensen	22	no HR
2026-06-24	Carter Jensen	22	no HR
2026-06-25	Carter Jensen	22	HR
2026-06-27	Max Kepler	22	no HR
2026-06-30	Carter Jensen	22	HR
2026-07-01	Carter Jensen	22	no HR
2026-07-02	Carter Jensen	22	HR
2026-07-06	Ben Rice	22	HR
2026-07-08	Ben Rice	22	no HR
2026-07-09	Ben Rice	22	HR

homerun firstlast = dateyearfull [rev_reduction] = 113

113

45.5%

11.9%

3.80×

21.3%

discovery

Signals: homerun firstlast, dateyearfull [rev_reduction]

11 distinct players · 1 distinct dates · 2026-07-10 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-07-10	Xander Bogaerts	113	HR
2026-07-10	Jake Cronenworth	113	no HR
2026-07-10	Shea Langeliers	113	no HR
2026-07-10	Xavier Edwards	113	no HR
2026-07-10	Anthony Seigler	113	HR
2026-07-10	Victor Mesa Jr.	113	HR
2026-07-10	Dominic Canzone	113	no HR
2026-07-10	Isaac Collins	113	HR
2026-07-10	Tyler Soderstrom	113	HR
2026-07-10	Jackson Chourio	113	no HR
2026-07-10	Braden Montgomery	113	no HR

firstname = monthname [rev_reduction] = own city [chaldean]

—

30.4%

11.9%

2.55×

20.8%

discovery

Signals: firstname, monthname [rev_reduction], own city [chaldean]

3 distinct players · 31 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 2/11

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Cedric Mullins	—	no HR
2026-06-01	Ryan Vilade	—	HR
2026-06-01	Junior Caminero	—	HR
2026-06-02	Ryan Vilade	—	no HR
2026-06-02	Junior Caminero	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Cedric Mullins	—	HR
2026-06-03	Junior Caminero	—	no HR
2026-06-05	Cedric Mullins	—	HR
2026-06-05	Junior Caminero	—	no HR
2026-06-06	Cedric Mullins	—	no HR
2026-06-06	Junior Caminero	—	no HR
2026-06-09	Cedric Mullins	—	no HR

Showing first 12 of 69 qualifying player-days.

firstname = monthname [rev_reduction] = own city [chaldean] = 22

30.4%

11.9%

2.55×

20.8%

discovery

Signals: firstname, monthname [rev_reduction], own city [chaldean]

3 distinct players · 31 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 2/10

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Cedric Mullins	22	no HR
2026-06-01	Ryan Vilade	22	HR
2026-06-01	Junior Caminero	22	HR
2026-06-02	Ryan Vilade	22	no HR
2026-06-02	Junior Caminero	22	no HR
2026-06-03	Cedric Mullins	22	HR
2026-06-03	Junior Caminero	22	no HR
2026-06-05	Cedric Mullins	22	HR
2026-06-05	Junior Caminero	22	no HR
2026-06-06	Cedric Mullins	22	no HR
2026-06-06	Junior Caminero	22	no HR
2026-06-09	Cedric Mullins	22	no HR

Showing first 12 of 69 qualifying player-days.

firstname = own city [chaldean] = 22

30.4%

11.9%

2.55×

20.8%

discovery

Signals: firstname, own city [chaldean]

3 distinct players · 31 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 2/10

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Cedric Mullins	22	no HR
2026-06-01	Ryan Vilade	22	HR
2026-06-01	Junior Caminero	22	HR
2026-06-02	Ryan Vilade	22	no HR
2026-06-02	Junior Caminero	22	no HR
2026-06-03	Cedric Mullins	22	HR
2026-06-03	Junior Caminero	22	no HR
2026-06-05	Cedric Mullins	22	HR
2026-06-05	Junior Caminero	22	no HR
2026-06-06	Cedric Mullins	22	no HR
2026-06-06	Junior Caminero	22	no HR
2026-06-09	Cedric Mullins	22	no HR

Showing first 12 of 69 qualifying player-days.

homerun firstmiddlelast = lastname = venue [ordinal]

—

38.1%

11.9%

3.19×

20.8%

discovery

Signals: homerun firstmiddlelast, lastname, venue [ordinal]

1 distinct players · 21 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 2/12

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Heriberto Hernández	—	HR
2026-06-02	Heriberto Hernández	—	HR
2026-06-03	Heriberto Hernández	—	no HR
2026-06-06	Heriberto Hernández	—	no HR
2026-06-12	Heriberto Hernández	—	no HR
2026-06-13	Heriberto Hernández	—	no HR
2026-06-14	Heriberto Hernández	—	HR
2026-06-15	Heriberto Hernández	—	no HR
2026-06-16	Heriberto Hernández	—	no HR
2026-06-19	Heriberto Hernández	—	no HR
2026-06-20	Heriberto Hernández	—	HR
2026-06-22	Heriberto Hernández	—	no HR

Showing first 12 of 21 qualifying player-days.

lastname = venue [ordinal] = 148

148

38.1%

11.9%

3.19×

20.8%

discovery

Signals: lastname, venue [ordinal]

1 distinct players · 21 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 2/12

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Heriberto Hernández	148	HR
2026-06-02	Heriberto Hernández	148	HR
2026-06-03	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-06	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-12	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-13	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-14	Heriberto Hernández	148	HR
2026-06-15	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-16	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-19	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-20	Heriberto Hernández	148	HR
2026-06-22	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR

Showing first 12 of 21 qualifying player-days.

homerun firstmiddlelast = venue [ordinal] = 148

148

38.1%

11.9%

3.19×

20.8%

discovery

Signals: homerun firstmiddlelast, venue [ordinal]

1 distinct players · 21 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 2/12

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Heriberto Hernández	148	HR
2026-06-02	Heriberto Hernández	148	HR
2026-06-03	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-06	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-12	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-13	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-14	Heriberto Hernández	148	HR
2026-06-15	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-16	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-19	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-20	Heriberto Hernández	148	HR
2026-06-22	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR

Showing first 12 of 21 qualifying player-days.

homerun firstmiddlelast = lastname = 148

148

38.1%

11.9%

3.19×

20.8%

discovery

Signals: homerun firstmiddlelast, lastname

1 distinct players · 21 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 2/12

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Heriberto Hernández	148	HR
2026-06-02	Heriberto Hernández	148	HR
2026-06-03	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-06	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-12	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-13	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-14	Heriberto Hernández	148	HR
2026-06-15	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-16	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-19	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-20	Heriberto Hernández	148	HR
2026-06-22	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR

Showing first 12 of 21 qualifying player-days.

homerun firstmiddlelast = lastname = venue [ordinal] = 148

148

38.1%

11.9%

3.19×

20.8%

discovery

Signals: homerun firstmiddlelast, lastname, venue [ordinal]

1 distinct players · 21 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 2/12

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Heriberto Hernández	148	HR
2026-06-02	Heriberto Hernández	148	HR
2026-06-03	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-06	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-12	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-13	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-14	Heriberto Hernández	148	HR
2026-06-15	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-16	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-19	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR
2026-06-20	Heriberto Hernández	148	HR
2026-06-22	Heriberto Hernández	148	no HR

Showing first 12 of 21 qualifying player-days.

next career HR = next career HR with team = 55

38.1%

11.9%

3.19×

20.8%

discovery

Signals: next career HR, next career HR with team

8 distinct players · 15 distinct dates · 2026-06-09 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample 0/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-09	Andy Pages	55	HR
2026-06-16	Pete Crow-Armstrong	55	HR
2026-06-16	Nick Kurtz	55	no HR
2026-06-17	Nick Kurtz	55	no HR
2026-06-18	Nick Kurtz	55	no HR
2026-06-19	Nick Kurtz	55	no HR
2026-06-20	Ben Rice	55	no HR
2026-06-20	Nick Kurtz	55	no HR
2026-06-21	Ben Rice	55	HR
2026-06-21	Nick Kurtz	55	HR
2026-06-24	Francisco Alvarez	55	HR
2026-06-30	Royce Lewis	55	no HR

Showing first 12 of 21 qualifying player-days.

birth state [latin] = jersey [raw]

—

35.7%

11.9%

2.99×

20.7%

discovery

Signals: birth state [latin], jersey [raw]

25 distinct players · 7 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 0/3

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Kyle Manzardo	—	HR
2026-06-13	Jesús Sánchez	—	no HR
2026-06-13	Nathan Lukes	—	no HR
2026-06-19	Nathaniel Lowe	—	no HR
2026-06-19	JJ Bleday	—	no HR
2026-06-19	Spencer Steer	—	no HR
2026-06-19	Blake Dunn	—	no HR
2026-06-25	Marcelo Mayer	—	no HR
2026-06-25	Caleb Durbin	—	HR
2026-06-30	Kyle Stowers	—	no HR
2026-06-30	Xavier Edwards	—	no HR
2026-06-30	Spencer Torkelson	—	HR

Showing first 12 of 28 qualifying player-days.

dateyearfull [rev_reduction] = homerun firstmiddlelast [reduction]

—

38.9%

11.9%

3.25×

20.3%

discovery

Signals: dateyearfull [rev_reduction], homerun firstmiddlelast [reduction]

18 distinct players · 10 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 1/4

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Yandy Díaz	—	no HR
2026-06-01	Ryan Vilade	—	HR
2026-06-01	Ben Williamson	—	no HR
2026-06-18	Justin Foscue	—	HR
2026-06-19	Sal Stewart	—	no HR
2026-06-30	Isaac Paredes	—	no HR
2026-07-02	Bryan Reynolds	—	no HR
2026-07-02	Kameron Misner	—	no HR
2026-07-03	Ozzie Albies	—	HR
2026-07-04	Bryce Harper	—	no HR
2026-07-04	Alec Bohm	—	HR
2026-07-04	Gabriel Rincones Jr.	—	HR

Showing first 12 of 18 qualifying player-days.

day of week [ordinal] = homerun firstlast [reduction]

—

38.9%

11.9%

3.25×

20.3%

discovery

Signals: day of week [ordinal], homerun firstlast [reduction]

18 distinct players · 8 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample 1/2

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Jake Mangum	—	no HR
2026-06-02	Jared Triolo	—	no HR
2026-06-02	Endy Rodríguez	—	HR
2026-06-02	Nick Gonzales	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Kyle Schwarber	—	HR
2026-06-03	Christopher Morel	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Heriberto Hernández	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Jakob Marsee	—	no HR
2026-06-14	Gabriel Moreno	—	HR
2026-06-20	Nick Solak	—	no HR
2026-06-23	Miguel Andujar	—	no HR
2026-06-30	Max Kepler	—	no HR

Showing first 12 of 18 qualifying player-days.

opponent moniker [reduction] = player name [reduction]

—

38.9%

11.9%

3.25×

20.3%

discovery

Signals: opponent moniker [reduction], player name [reduction]

10 distinct players · 4 distinct dates · 2026-06-15 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 3/14

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-15	Jeff McNeil	—	HR
2026-06-15	Zack Gelof	—	no HR
2026-06-15	Henry Bolte	—	no HR
2026-06-15	Jacob Wilson	—	no HR
2026-06-16	Jeff McNeil	—	no HR
2026-06-16	Zack Gelof	—	HR
2026-06-16	Henry Bolte	—	no HR
2026-06-16	Jacob Wilson	—	no HR
2026-06-17	Jonah Heim	—	no HR
2026-06-17	Jeff McNeil	—	no HR
2026-06-17	Zack Gelof	—	HR
2026-06-17	Henry Bolte	—	HR

Showing first 12 of 18 qualifying player-days.

firstname = lastname = own moniker [reduction] = 25

36.0%

11.9%

3.01×

20.2%

discovery

Signals: firstname, lastname, own moniker [reduction]

1 distinct players · 25 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 1/6

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Rafael Devers	25	no HR
2026-06-02	Rafael Devers	25	no HR
2026-06-03	Rafael Devers	25	no HR
2026-06-04	Rafael Devers	25	no HR
2026-06-05	Rafael Devers	25	no HR
2026-06-06	Rafael Devers	25	HR
2026-06-09	Rafael Devers	25	no HR
2026-06-12	Rafael Devers	25	no HR
2026-06-13	Rafael Devers	25	no HR
2026-06-14	Rafael Devers	25	no HR
2026-06-16	Rafael Devers	25	HR
2026-06-17	Rafael Devers	25	HR

Showing first 12 of 25 qualifying player-days.

firstmiddlelast = player name [rev_reduction] = 114

114

36.0%

11.9%

3.01×

20.2%

discovery

Signals: firstmiddlelast, player name [rev_reduction]

1 distinct players · 25 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 1/6

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Rafael Devers	114	no HR
2026-06-02	Rafael Devers	114	no HR
2026-06-03	Rafael Devers	114	no HR
2026-06-04	Rafael Devers	114	no HR
2026-06-05	Rafael Devers	114	no HR
2026-06-06	Rafael Devers	114	HR
2026-06-09	Rafael Devers	114	no HR
2026-06-12	Rafael Devers	114	no HR
2026-06-13	Rafael Devers	114	no HR
2026-06-14	Rafael Devers	114	no HR
2026-06-16	Rafael Devers	114	HR
2026-06-17	Rafael Devers	114	HR

Showing first 12 of 25 qualifying player-days.

lastname = own moniker [reduction] = 25

36.0%

11.9%

3.01×

20.2%

discovery

Signals: lastname, own moniker [reduction]

1 distinct players · 25 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 1/6

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Rafael Devers	25	no HR
2026-06-02	Rafael Devers	25	no HR
2026-06-03	Rafael Devers	25	no HR
2026-06-04	Rafael Devers	25	no HR
2026-06-05	Rafael Devers	25	no HR
2026-06-06	Rafael Devers	25	HR
2026-06-09	Rafael Devers	25	no HR
2026-06-12	Rafael Devers	25	no HR
2026-06-13	Rafael Devers	25	no HR
2026-06-14	Rafael Devers	25	no HR
2026-06-16	Rafael Devers	25	HR
2026-06-17	Rafael Devers	25	HR

Showing first 12 of 25 qualifying player-days.

lastname = birth country [latin] = 291

291

36.0%

11.9%

3.01×

20.2%

discovery

Signals: lastname, birth country [latin]

1 distinct players · 25 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 0/2

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Kazuma Okamoto	291	HR
2026-06-03	Kazuma Okamoto	291	no HR
2026-06-04	Kazuma Okamoto	291	no HR
2026-06-05	Kazuma Okamoto	291	no HR
2026-06-06	Kazuma Okamoto	291	no HR
2026-06-09	Kazuma Okamoto	291	no HR
2026-06-12	Kazuma Okamoto	291	HR
2026-06-13	Kazuma Okamoto	291	HR
2026-06-14	Kazuma Okamoto	291	no HR
2026-06-16	Kazuma Okamoto	291	no HR
2026-06-17	Kazuma Okamoto	291	no HR
2026-06-18	Kazuma Okamoto	291	no HR

Showing first 12 of 25 qualifying player-days.

lastname = own moniker [reduction] = rulingplanet [chaldean]

—

36.0%

11.9%

3.01×

20.2%

discovery

Signals: lastname, own moniker [reduction], rulingplanet [chaldean]

7 distinct players · 13 distinct dates · 2026-06-04 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 0/2

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-04	Salvador Perez	—	no HR
2026-06-04	Manny Machado	—	HR
2026-06-04	Xander Bogaerts	—	no HR
2026-06-04	Bobby Witt Jr.	—	no HR
2026-06-04	Tyler Tolbert	—	no HR
2026-06-05	Rafael Devers	—	no HR
2026-06-12	Rafael Devers	—	no HR
2026-06-18	Salvador Perez	—	HR
2026-06-18	Bobby Witt Jr.	—	HR
2026-06-18	Tyler Tolbert	—	no HR
2026-06-19	Rafael Devers	—	HR
2026-06-24	Luis Urías	—	no HR

Showing first 12 of 25 qualifying player-days.

lastname = own moniker [reduction] = 26

34.5%

11.9%

2.89×

19.9%

discovery

Signals: lastname, own moniker [reduction]

1 distinct players · 29 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 1/11

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Ben Rice	26	no HR
2026-06-03	Ben Rice	26	no HR
2026-06-04	Ben Rice	26	no HR
2026-06-05	Ben Rice	26	HR
2026-06-09	Ben Rice	26	no HR
2026-06-12	Ben Rice	26	no HR
2026-06-13	Ben Rice	26	no HR
2026-06-14	Ben Rice	26	HR
2026-06-16	Ben Rice	26	HR
2026-06-17	Ben Rice	26	no HR
2026-06-18	Ben Rice	26	no HR
2026-06-19	Ben Rice	26	HR

Showing first 12 of 29 qualifying player-days.

firstname = venue [ordinal] = 148

148

34.5%

11.9%

2.89×

19.9%

discovery

Signals: firstname, venue [ordinal]

1 distinct players · 29 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 1/11

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Ben Rice	148	no HR
2026-06-03	Ben Rice	148	no HR
2026-06-04	Ben Rice	148	no HR
2026-06-05	Ben Rice	148	HR
2026-06-09	Ben Rice	148	no HR
2026-06-12	Ben Rice	148	no HR
2026-06-13	Ben Rice	148	no HR
2026-06-14	Ben Rice	148	HR
2026-06-16	Ben Rice	148	HR
2026-06-17	Ben Rice	148	no HR
2026-06-18	Ben Rice	148	no HR
2026-06-19	Ben Rice	148	HR

Showing first 12 of 29 qualifying player-days.

firstlast = own city [reduction] = pitcher [reduction]

—

40.0%

11.9%

3.35×

19.8%

discovery

Signals: firstlast, own city [reduction], pitcher [reduction]

11 distinct players · 11 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Riley Greene	—	HR
2026-06-03	Nathaniel Lowe	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Blake Dunn	—	HR
2026-06-09	Ty France	—	no HR
2026-06-14	Bryce Harper	—	no HR
2026-06-14	Bryson Stott	—	no HR
2026-06-18	Pete Alonso	—	no HR
2026-06-19	Pete Alonso	—	HR
2026-06-21	TJ Rumfield	—	HR
2026-06-28	Pete Alonso	—	HR
2026-07-05	TJ Friedl	—	no HR
2026-07-08	Pete Alonso	—	HR

Showing first 12 of 15 qualifying player-days.

firstlast = firstlast [reduction] = own city [reduction] = pitcher [reduction]

—

40.0%

11.9%

3.35×

19.8%

discovery

Signals: firstlast, firstlast [reduction], own city [reduction], pitcher [reduction]

11 distinct players · 11 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Riley Greene	—	HR
2026-06-03	Nathaniel Lowe	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Blake Dunn	—	HR
2026-06-09	Ty France	—	no HR
2026-06-14	Bryce Harper	—	no HR
2026-06-14	Bryson Stott	—	no HR
2026-06-18	Pete Alonso	—	no HR
2026-06-19	Pete Alonso	—	HR
2026-06-21	TJ Rumfield	—	HR
2026-06-28	Pete Alonso	—	HR
2026-07-05	TJ Friedl	—	no HR
2026-07-08	Pete Alonso	—	HR

Showing first 12 of 15 qualifying player-days.

firstlast = firstlast [reduction] = own city [reduction]

—

40.0%

11.9%

3.35×

19.8%

discovery

Signals: firstlast, firstlast [reduction], own city [reduction]

11 distinct players · 11 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Riley Greene	—	HR
2026-06-03	Nathaniel Lowe	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Blake Dunn	—	HR
2026-06-09	Ty France	—	no HR
2026-06-14	Bryce Harper	—	no HR
2026-06-14	Bryson Stott	—	no HR
2026-06-18	Pete Alonso	—	no HR
2026-06-19	Pete Alonso	—	HR
2026-06-21	TJ Rumfield	—	HR
2026-06-28	Pete Alonso	—	HR
2026-07-05	TJ Friedl	—	no HR
2026-07-08	Pete Alonso	—	HR

Showing first 12 of 15 qualifying player-days.

lastname = monthname [chaldean] = 11

33.3%

11.9%

2.79×

19.8%

discovery

Signals: lastname, monthname [chaldean]

6 distinct players · 9 distinct dates · 2026-07-01 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 1/16

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-07-01	Luis García Jr.	11	no HR
2026-07-01	David Fry	11	HR
2026-07-01	Ben Rice	11	no HR
2026-07-01	Sean Keys	11	HR
2026-07-02	David Fry	11	HR
2026-07-02	Victor Mesa Jr.	11	no HR
2026-07-03	Luis García Jr.	11	HR
2026-07-03	David Fry	11	no HR
2026-07-03	Victor Mesa Jr.	11	no HR
2026-07-03	Ben Rice	11	HR
2026-07-03	Sean Keys	11	no HR
2026-07-04	Luis García Jr.	11	no HR

Showing first 12 of 33 qualifying player-days.

firstmiddlelast = homerun firstlast = first name [rev_ordinal]

—

36.4%

11.9%

3.04×

19.7%

discovery

Signals: firstmiddlelast, homerun firstlast, first name [rev_ordinal]

18 distinct players · 16 distinct dates · 2026-06-04 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 0/2

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-04	Zack Gelof	—	no HR
2026-06-04	Kyle Manzardo	—	no HR
2026-06-12	José Fermín	—	no HR
2026-06-14	Jeff McNeil	—	no HR
2026-06-15	Corbin Carroll	—	no HR
2026-06-18	Brooks Lee	—	HR
2026-06-19	Jackson Chourio	—	no HR
2026-06-20	Wilyer Abreu	—	HR
2026-06-21	Iván Herrera	—	HR
2026-06-21	Zack Gelof	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Connor Norby	—	no HR
2026-06-22	Freddie Freeman	—	HR

Showing first 12 of 22 qualifying player-days.

doa weeks = rulingplanet [rev_reduction] = 18

36.4%

11.9%

3.04×

19.7%

discovery

Signals: doa weeks, rulingplanet [rev_reduction]

22 distinct players · 4 distinct dates · 2026-06-14 → 2026-07-05 · out-of-sample 0/2

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-14	Adley Rutschman	18	no HR
2026-06-14	Jared Triolo	18	no HR
2026-06-14	Jasson Domínguez	18	no HR
2026-06-14	Denzer Guzman	18	no HR
2026-06-14	Sam Antonacci	18	HR
2026-06-21	Esteury Ruiz	18	no HR
2026-06-21	Gabriel Moreno	18	no HR
2026-06-21	Josh Jung	18	no HR
2026-06-21	Logan O'Hoppe	18	no HR
2026-06-21	Brooks Lee	18	no HR
2026-06-21	Nolan Schanuel	18	no HR
2026-06-21	Jac Caglianone	18	HR

Showing first 12 of 22 qualifying player-days.

dob weeks = firstname = 33

36.4%

11.9%

3.04×

19.7%

discovery

Signals: dob weeks, firstname

7 distinct players · 19 distinct dates · 2026-06-17 → 2026-07-07 · out-of-sample 0/1

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-17	Jac Caglianone	33	no HR
2026-06-18	Jac Caglianone	33	HR
2026-06-19	Jac Caglianone	33	HR
2026-06-20	Dansby Swanson	33	no HR
2026-06-21	Jac Caglianone	33	HR
2026-06-22	Dansby Swanson	33	HR
2026-06-23	Dansby Swanson	33	HR
2026-06-24	Dansby Swanson	33	HR
2026-06-25	Dansby Swanson	33	no HR
2026-06-25	Victor Scott II	33	no HR
2026-06-26	Isaac Paredes	33	no HR
2026-06-27	Isaac Paredes	33	no HR

Showing first 12 of 22 qualifying player-days.

jersey = lastname = opponent city [chaldean]

—

34.6%

11.9%

2.90×

19.4%

discovery

Signals: jersey, lastname, opponent city [chaldean]

8 distinct players · 20 distinct dates · 2026-06-15 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 0/4

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-15	Ryan O'Hearn	—	no HR
2026-06-16	Ryan O'Hearn	—	no HR
2026-06-17	Ryan O'Hearn	—	HR
2026-06-19	Travis Bazzana	—	no HR
2026-06-20	Travis Bazzana	—	HR
2026-06-21	Travis Bazzana	—	no HR
2026-06-22	Carter Jensen	—	no HR
2026-06-23	Carter Jensen	—	no HR
2026-06-24	Carter Jensen	—	no HR
2026-06-25	Austin Wells	—	no HR
2026-06-25	Carter Jensen	—	HR
2026-06-26	Ryan O'Hearn	—	no HR

Showing first 12 of 26 qualifying player-days.

next career HR with team = birth country [rev_ordinal]

—

41.7%

11.9%

3.49×

19.3%

discovery

Signals: next career HR with team, birth country [rev_ordinal]

8 distinct players · 9 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Will Benson	—	HR
2026-06-02	Zack Gelof	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Zack Gelof	—	no HR
2026-06-05	Zack Gelof	—	no HR
2026-06-09	Edmundo Sosa	—	no HR
2026-06-09	Kyle Manzardo	—	no HR
2026-06-12	Ceddanne Rafaela	—	HR
2026-06-13	Edmundo Sosa	—	HR
2026-06-30	Luis Arraez	—	HR
2026-07-08	Brandon Marsh	—	no HR
2026-07-08	Dominic Canzone	—	no HR
2026-07-09	Dominic Canzone	—	HR

next career HR = birth country [rev_ordinal]

—

41.7%

11.9%

3.49×

19.3%

discovery

Signals: next career HR, birth country [rev_ordinal]

8 distinct players · 9 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Will Benson	—	HR
2026-06-02	Zack Gelof	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Zack Gelof	—	no HR
2026-06-05	Zack Gelof	—	no HR
2026-06-09	Edmundo Sosa	—	no HR
2026-06-09	Kyle Manzardo	—	no HR
2026-06-12	Ceddanne Rafaela	—	HR
2026-06-13	Edmundo Sosa	—	HR
2026-06-30	Luis Arraez	—	HR
2026-07-08	Brandon Marsh	—	no HR
2026-07-08	Dominic Canzone	—	no HR
2026-07-09	Dominic Canzone	—	HR

next career HR = next career HR with team = birth country [rev_ordinal]

—

41.7%

11.9%

3.49×

19.3%

discovery

Signals: next career HR, next career HR with team, birth country [rev_ordinal]

8 distinct players · 9 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Will Benson	—	HR
2026-06-02	Zack Gelof	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Zack Gelof	—	no HR
2026-06-05	Zack Gelof	—	no HR
2026-06-09	Edmundo Sosa	—	no HR
2026-06-09	Kyle Manzardo	—	no HR
2026-06-12	Ceddanne Rafaela	—	HR
2026-06-13	Edmundo Sosa	—	HR
2026-06-30	Luis Arraez	—	HR
2026-07-08	Brandon Marsh	—	no HR
2026-07-08	Dominic Canzone	—	no HR
2026-07-09	Dominic Canzone	—	HR

dob weeks = opponent city [rev_reduction] = 33

41.7%

11.9%

3.49×

19.3%

discovery

Signals: dob weeks, opponent city [rev_reduction]

6 distinct players · 12 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Daniel Schneemann	33	no HR
2026-06-04	Angel Martínez	33	no HR
2026-06-09	Angel Martínez	33	no HR
2026-06-16	Sam Antonacci	33	no HR
2026-06-17	Sam Antonacci	33	HR
2026-06-18	Sam Antonacci	33	no HR
2026-06-22	Dansby Swanson	33	HR
2026-06-23	Dansby Swanson	33	HR
2026-06-24	Dansby Swanson	33	HR
2026-06-25	Dansby Swanson	33	no HR
2026-07-04	Trevor Larnach	33	HR
2026-07-10	Dylan Crews	33	no HR

firstmiddlelast = homerun firstlast [rev_reduction] = 93

41.7%

11.9%

3.49×

19.3%

discovery

Signals: firstmiddlelast, homerun firstlast [rev_reduction]

8 distinct players · 11 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample 1/2

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Tommy Troy	93	no HR
2026-06-03	Lane Thomas	93	no HR
2026-06-13	Eli White	93	HR
2026-06-15	Ryan Vilade	93	HR
2026-06-16	Lars Nootbaar	93	no HR
2026-06-21	Paul Goldschmidt	93	no HR
2026-06-22	Eli White	93	no HR
2026-06-29	Brandon Valenzuela	93	no HR
2026-07-04	Eli White	93	HR
2026-07-08	Tommy Troy	93	HR
2026-07-09	Lane Thomas	93	HR
2026-07-09	Josh Rojas	93	no HR

lastname = own moniker [rev_reduction] = rulingplanet [reduction] = 36

41.7%

11.9%

3.49×

19.3%

discovery

Signals: lastname, own moniker [rev_reduction], rulingplanet [reduction]

4 distinct players · 5 distinct dates · 2026-06-04 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-04	Miguel Rojas	36	no HR
2026-06-04	Manny Machado	36	HR
2026-06-04	Josh Rojas	36	no HR
2026-06-04	Bobby Witt Jr.	36	no HR
2026-06-18	Bobby Witt Jr.	36	HR
2026-06-25	Josh Rojas	36	no HR
2026-07-02	Manny Machado	36	HR
2026-07-02	Josh Rojas	36	no HR
2026-07-02	Bobby Witt Jr.	36	no HR
2026-07-09	Manny Machado	36	HR
2026-07-09	Josh Rojas	36	no HR
2026-07-09	Bobby Witt Jr.	36	HR

lastname = own moniker [rev_reduction] = rulingplanet [reduction]

—

41.7%

11.9%

3.49×

19.3%

discovery

Signals: lastname, own moniker [rev_reduction], rulingplanet [reduction]

4 distinct players · 5 distinct dates · 2026-06-04 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-04	Miguel Rojas	—	no HR
2026-06-04	Manny Machado	—	HR
2026-06-04	Josh Rojas	—	no HR
2026-06-04	Bobby Witt Jr.	—	no HR
2026-06-18	Bobby Witt Jr.	—	HR
2026-06-25	Josh Rojas	—	no HR
2026-07-02	Manny Machado	—	HR
2026-07-02	Josh Rojas	—	no HR
2026-07-02	Bobby Witt Jr.	—	no HR
2026-07-09	Manny Machado	—	HR
2026-07-09	Josh Rojas	—	no HR
2026-07-09	Bobby Witt Jr.	—	HR

firstname = homerun firstlast [reduction] = 75

41.7%

11.9%

3.49×

19.3%

discovery

Signals: firstname, homerun firstlast [reduction]

10 distinct players · 10 distinct dates · 2026-06-04 → 2026-07-08 · out-of-sample 0/7

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-04	Victor Caratini	75	HR
2026-06-13	Bryan Reynolds	75	no HR
2026-06-14	Bryan Torres	75	no HR
2026-06-18	Wade Meckler	75	no HR
2026-06-19	Bryan Torres	75	no HR
2026-06-19	Junior Perez	75	HR
2026-06-22	Raynel Delgado	75	no HR
2026-06-24	Victor Bericoto	75	HR
2026-06-25	Victor Mesa Jr.	75	HR
2026-06-25	Junior Caminero	75	HR
2026-07-03	Victor Robles	75	no HR
2026-07-08	Junior Perez	75	no HR

homerun firstmiddlelast = opponent city [ordinal] = 95

41.7%

11.9%

3.49×

19.3%

discovery

Signals: homerun firstmiddlelast, opponent city [ordinal]

5 distinct players · 12 distinct dates · 2026-06-05 → 2026-06-28 · out-of-sample 0/2

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-05	Ernie Clement	95	no HR
2026-06-06	Ernie Clement	95	HR
2026-06-09	Mitch Garver	95	HR
2026-06-13	Jase Bowen	95	no HR
2026-06-14	Jase Bowen	95	no HR
2026-06-18	Mitch Garver	95	no HR
2026-06-22	Nolan Schanuel	95	no HR
2026-06-23	Nolan Schanuel	95	HR
2026-06-24	Nolan Schanuel	95	no HR
2026-06-26	Luis García Jr.	95	no HR
2026-06-27	Luis García Jr.	95	HR
2026-06-28	Luis García Jr.	95	HR

homerun firstlast [rev_reduction] = rulingplanet [ordinal] = 93

41.7%

11.9%

3.49×

19.3%

discovery

Signals: homerun firstlast [rev_reduction], rulingplanet [ordinal]

10 distinct players · 3 distinct dates · 2026-06-13 → 2026-07-04 · out-of-sample 0/1

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-13	Sandy León	93	no HR
2026-06-13	Mike Yastrzemski	93	no HR
2026-06-13	Taylor Ward	93	no HR
2026-06-13	Eli White	93	HR
2026-06-27	Jose Trevino	93	no HR
2026-06-27	Jake Mangum	93	no HR
2026-06-27	Jared Triolo	93	no HR
2026-06-27	Noelvi Marte	93	no HR
2026-06-27	Sal Stewart	93	HR
2026-07-04	Mike Yastrzemski	93	HR
2026-07-04	Eli White	93	HR
2026-07-04	Austin Riley	93	HR

firstlast = datemonthdayordinal [rev_reduction] = 74

41.7%

11.9%

3.49×

19.3%

discovery

Signals: firstlast, datemonthdayordinal [rev_reduction]

9 distinct players · 2 distinct dates · 2026-06-17 → 2026-06-28 · out-of-sample 0/9

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-17	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	74	HR
2026-06-17	Spencer Torkelson	74	no HR
2026-06-17	Richie Palacios	74	no HR
2026-06-17	Jarren Duran	74	no HR
2026-06-17	Francisco Alvarez	74	no HR
2026-06-17	Michael Massey	74	HR
2026-06-17	Joey Loperfido	74	no HR
2026-06-17	Colson Montgomery	74	HR
2026-06-17	Kevin McGonigle	74	HR
2026-06-28	Spencer Torkelson	74	HR
2026-06-28	Joey Loperfido	74	no HR
2026-06-28	Kevin McGonigle	74	no HR

firstlast [rev_reduction] = pitcher [rev_reduction] = 53

33.3%

11.9%

2.79×

19.2%

discovery

Signals: firstlast [rev_reduction], pitcher [rev_reduction]

23 distinct players · 13 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample 1/5

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Joey Ortiz	53	no HR
2026-06-01	Jackson Chourio	53	no HR
2026-06-02	Gavin Sheets	53	HR
2026-06-02	Fernando Tatis Jr.	53	no HR
2026-06-02	Sung-Mun Song	53	no HR
2026-06-06	Michael Busch	53	no HR
2026-06-12	Michael Busch	53	HR
2026-06-13	Gary Sánchez	53	no HR
2026-06-13	Joey Ortiz	53	no HR
2026-06-13	Jackson Chourio	53	HR
2026-06-18	Jared Young	53	no HR
2026-06-18	Brett Baty	53	no HR

Showing first 12 of 30 qualifying player-days.

homerun firstlast [reduction] = oppdivisionabbr [ordinal] = 93

36.8%

11.9%

3.08×

19.1%

discovery

Signals: homerun firstlast [reduction], oppdivisionabbr [ordinal]

19 distinct players · 6 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-06-30 · out-of-sample 1/5

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Ildemaro Vargas	93	no HR
2026-06-01	Ketel Marte	93	HR
2026-06-01	Tommy Troy	93	HR
2026-06-01	Jose Fernandez	93	no HR
2026-06-04	Bryce Harper	93	no HR
2026-06-04	Bryson Stott	93	no HR
2026-06-04	Justin Crawford	93	no HR
2026-06-09	Will Benson	93	no HR
2026-06-09	Dane Myers	93	no HR
2026-06-09	Noelvi Marte	93	no HR
2026-06-09	Sal Stewart	93	HR
2026-06-14	Jacob Gonzalez	93	no HR

Showing first 12 of 19 qualifying player-days.

birth city [reduction] = datemonthdayordinal [rev_reduction]

—

36.8%

11.9%

3.08×

19.1%

discovery

Signals: birth city [reduction], datemonthdayordinal [rev_reduction]

17 distinct players · 8 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Otto Lopez	—	HR
2026-06-02	Owen Caissie	—	no HR
2026-06-02	Liam Hicks	—	no HR
2026-06-02	Joe Mack	—	HR
2026-06-06	Jac Caglianone	—	no HR
2026-07-01	Cody Bellinger	—	no HR
2026-07-01	Amed Rosario	—	HR
2026-07-02	JJ Bleday	—	no HR
2026-07-02	Matt McLain	—	no HR
2026-07-03	Keibert Ruiz	—	no HR
2026-07-03	Nasim Nuñez	—	no HR
2026-07-03	James Wood	—	no HR

Showing first 12 of 19 qualifying player-days.

own moniker [ordinal] = first name [rev_ordinal]

—

36.8%

11.9%

3.08×

19.1%

discovery

Signals: own moniker [ordinal], first name [rev_ordinal]

16 distinct players · 9 distinct dates · 2026-06-04 → 2026-07-05 · out-of-sample 2/5

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-04	Rhys Hoskins	—	no HR
2026-06-04	Steven Kwan	—	no HR
2026-06-04	Travis Bazzana	—	no HR
2026-06-04	Kyle Manzardo	—	no HR
2026-06-12	Garrett Mitchell	—	no HR
2026-06-15	Carlos Cortes	—	no HR
2026-06-16	Cody Bellinger	—	no HR
2026-06-16	José Caballero	—	HR
2026-06-16	Spencer Jones	—	HR
2026-06-21	Kyle Stowers	—	HR
2026-06-21	Otto Lopez	—	no HR
2026-06-21	Connor Norby	—	no HR

Showing first 12 of 19 qualifying player-days.

birth city [rev_reduction] = daycardinal [rev_ordinal]

—

36.8%

11.9%

3.08×

19.1%

discovery

Signals: birth city [rev_reduction], daycardinal [rev_ordinal]

19 distinct players · 5 distinct dates · 2026-06-04 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-04	Daulton Varsho	—	no HR
2026-06-04	Kazuma Okamoto	—	no HR
2026-06-04	Yohendrick Piñango	—	no HR
2026-06-04	Charles McAdoo	—	no HR
2026-06-12	Taylor Ward	—	no HR
2026-06-12	Zach McKinstry	—	no HR
2026-06-12	Spencer Torkelson	—	HR
2026-06-12	James Outman	—	HR
2026-06-12	Gunnar Henderson	—	HR
2026-07-04	J.T. Realmuto	—	HR
2026-07-04	Derek Hill	—	no HR
2026-07-04	Mark Vientos	—	HR

Showing first 12 of 19 qualifying player-days.

age years [raw] = oppleagueabbr [rev_ordinal] = last name [chaldean] = 28

36.8%

11.9%

3.08×

19.1%

discovery

Signals: age years [raw], oppleagueabbr [rev_ordinal], last name [chaldean]

15 distinct players · 7 distinct dates · 2026-06-04 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-04	Alex Call	28	no HR
2026-06-06	Christian Yelich	28	no HR
2026-06-06	Jake Bauers	28	HR
2026-06-06	William Contreras	28	HR
2026-06-06	Brice Turang	28	HR
2026-06-14	Rafael Devers	28	no HR
2026-06-14	Casey Schmitt	28	no HR
2026-06-15	Denzer Guzman	28	no HR
2026-06-30	Griffin Conine	28	no HR
2026-06-30	Kyle Stowers	28	no HR
2026-06-30	Leo Jiménez	28	no HR
2026-06-30	Liam Hicks	28	no HR

Showing first 12 of 19 qualifying player-days.

age years [raw] = oppleagueabbr [rev_ordinal] = last name [chaldean]

—

36.8%

11.9%

3.08×

19.1%

discovery

Signals: age years [raw], oppleagueabbr [rev_ordinal], last name [chaldean]

15 distinct players · 7 distinct dates · 2026-06-04 → 2026-07-10 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-04	Alex Call	—	no HR
2026-06-06	Christian Yelich	—	no HR
2026-06-06	Jake Bauers	—	HR
2026-06-06	William Contreras	—	HR
2026-06-06	Brice Turang	—	HR
2026-06-14	Rafael Devers	—	no HR
2026-06-14	Casey Schmitt	—	no HR
2026-06-15	Denzer Guzman	—	no HR
2026-06-30	Griffin Conine	—	no HR
2026-06-30	Kyle Stowers	—	no HR
2026-06-30	Leo Jiménez	—	no HR
2026-06-30	Liam Hicks	—	no HR

Showing first 12 of 19 qualifying player-days.

lastname = oppdivisionabbr [rev_reduction] = last name [rev_reduction]

—

33.3%

11.9%

2.79×

18.6%

discovery

Signals: lastname, oppdivisionabbr [rev_reduction], last name [rev_reduction]

23 distinct players · 14 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-04 · out-of-sample 0/2

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Bryce Harper	—	HR
2026-06-02	Ketel Marte	—	no HR
2026-06-02	Trea Turner	—	no HR
2026-06-02	Justin Crawford	—	no HR
2026-06-05	Gunnar Henderson	—	no HR
2026-06-05	Jackson Holliday	—	no HR
2026-06-12	Paul Goldschmidt	—	no HR
2026-06-12	Amed Rosario	—	no HR
2026-06-13	Paul Goldschmidt	—	HR
2026-06-13	Michael Harris II	—	HR
2026-06-15	Chandler Simpson	—	no HR
2026-06-18	Willson Contreras	—	no HR

Showing first 12 of 27 qualifying player-days.

firstlast = firstmiddlelast = 110

110

37.5%

11.9%

3.14×

18.5%

discovery

Signals: firstlast, firstmiddlelast

1 distinct players · 16 distinct dates · 2026-06-01 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample 0/2

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-01	Ketel Marte	110	HR
2026-06-02	Ketel Marte	110	no HR
2026-06-04	Ketel Marte	110	HR
2026-06-05	Ketel Marte	110	no HR
2026-06-12	Ketel Marte	110	no HR
2026-06-14	Ketel Marte	110	no HR
2026-06-19	Ketel Marte	110	HR
2026-06-20	Ketel Marte	110	no HR
2026-06-21	Ketel Marte	110	no HR
2026-06-22	Ketel Marte	110	no HR
2026-06-23	Ketel Marte	110	no HR
2026-06-24	Ketel Marte	110	HR

Showing first 12 of 16 qualifying player-days.

homerun firstmiddlelast = opponent name [rev_ordinal] = opponent moniker [rev_ordinal] = 146

146

37.5%

11.9%

3.14×

18.5%

discovery

Signals: homerun firstmiddlelast, opponent name [rev_ordinal], opponent moniker [rev_ordinal]

6 distinct players · 12 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Pete Crow-Armstrong	146	no HR
2026-06-03	Pete Crow-Armstrong	146	HR
2026-06-04	Pete Crow-Armstrong	146	HR
2026-06-23	Rafael Devers	146	no HR
2026-06-24	Rafael Devers	146	HR
2026-06-24	Victor Bericoto	146	HR
2026-06-25	Rafael Devers	146	no HR
2026-06-25	Victor Bericoto	146	HR
2026-07-03	Xavier Edwards	146	no HR
2026-07-04	Xavier Edwards	146	no HR
2026-07-05	Xavier Edwards	146	no HR
2026-07-07	Spencer Torkelson	146	no HR

Showing first 12 of 16 qualifying player-days.

homerun firstmiddlelast = opponent city [rev_ordinal] = opponent moniker [rev_ordinal] = 146

146

37.5%

11.9%

3.14×

18.5%

discovery

Signals: homerun firstmiddlelast, opponent city [rev_ordinal], opponent moniker [rev_ordinal]

6 distinct players · 12 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Pete Crow-Armstrong	146	no HR
2026-06-03	Pete Crow-Armstrong	146	HR
2026-06-04	Pete Crow-Armstrong	146	HR
2026-06-23	Rafael Devers	146	no HR
2026-06-24	Rafael Devers	146	HR
2026-06-24	Victor Bericoto	146	HR
2026-06-25	Rafael Devers	146	no HR
2026-06-25	Victor Bericoto	146	HR
2026-07-03	Xavier Edwards	146	no HR
2026-07-04	Xavier Edwards	146	no HR
2026-07-05	Xavier Edwards	146	no HR
2026-07-07	Spencer Torkelson	146	no HR

Showing first 12 of 16 qualifying player-days.

homerun firstmiddlelast = opponent city [rev_ordinal] = opponent name [rev_ordinal] = opponent moniker [rev_ordinal] = 146

146

37.5%

11.9%

3.14×

18.5%

discovery

Signals: homerun firstmiddlelast, opponent city [rev_ordinal], opponent name [rev_ordinal], opponent moniker [rev_ordinal]

6 distinct players · 12 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Pete Crow-Armstrong	146	no HR
2026-06-03	Pete Crow-Armstrong	146	HR
2026-06-04	Pete Crow-Armstrong	146	HR
2026-06-23	Rafael Devers	146	no HR
2026-06-24	Rafael Devers	146	HR
2026-06-24	Victor Bericoto	146	HR
2026-06-25	Rafael Devers	146	no HR
2026-06-25	Victor Bericoto	146	HR
2026-07-03	Xavier Edwards	146	no HR
2026-07-04	Xavier Edwards	146	no HR
2026-07-05	Xavier Edwards	146	no HR
2026-07-07	Spencer Torkelson	146	no HR

Showing first 12 of 16 qualifying player-days.

homerun firstmiddlelast = opponent city [rev_ordinal] = opponent name [rev_ordinal]

—

37.5%

11.9%

3.14×

18.5%

discovery

Signals: homerun firstmiddlelast, opponent city [rev_ordinal], opponent name [rev_ordinal]

6 distinct players · 12 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Pete Crow-Armstrong	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Pete Crow-Armstrong	—	HR
2026-06-04	Pete Crow-Armstrong	—	HR
2026-06-23	Rafael Devers	—	no HR
2026-06-24	Rafael Devers	—	HR
2026-06-24	Victor Bericoto	—	HR
2026-06-25	Rafael Devers	—	no HR
2026-06-25	Victor Bericoto	—	HR
2026-07-03	Xavier Edwards	—	no HR
2026-07-04	Xavier Edwards	—	no HR
2026-07-05	Xavier Edwards	—	no HR
2026-07-07	Spencer Torkelson	—	no HR

Showing first 12 of 16 qualifying player-days.

homerun firstmiddlelast = opponent name [rev_ordinal] = 146

146

37.5%

11.9%

3.14×

18.5%

discovery

Signals: homerun firstmiddlelast, opponent name [rev_ordinal]

6 distinct players · 12 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Pete Crow-Armstrong	146	no HR
2026-06-03	Pete Crow-Armstrong	146	HR
2026-06-04	Pete Crow-Armstrong	146	HR
2026-06-23	Rafael Devers	146	no HR
2026-06-24	Rafael Devers	146	HR
2026-06-24	Victor Bericoto	146	HR
2026-06-25	Rafael Devers	146	no HR
2026-06-25	Victor Bericoto	146	HR
2026-07-03	Xavier Edwards	146	no HR
2026-07-04	Xavier Edwards	146	no HR
2026-07-05	Xavier Edwards	146	no HR
2026-07-07	Spencer Torkelson	146	no HR

Showing first 12 of 16 qualifying player-days.

homerun firstmiddlelast = opponent name [rev_ordinal] = opponent moniker [rev_ordinal]

—

37.5%

11.9%

3.14×

18.5%

discovery

Signals: homerun firstmiddlelast, opponent name [rev_ordinal], opponent moniker [rev_ordinal]

6 distinct players · 12 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Pete Crow-Armstrong	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Pete Crow-Armstrong	—	HR
2026-06-04	Pete Crow-Armstrong	—	HR
2026-06-23	Rafael Devers	—	no HR
2026-06-24	Rafael Devers	—	HR
2026-06-24	Victor Bericoto	—	HR
2026-06-25	Rafael Devers	—	no HR
2026-06-25	Victor Bericoto	—	HR
2026-07-03	Xavier Edwards	—	no HR
2026-07-04	Xavier Edwards	—	no HR
2026-07-05	Xavier Edwards	—	no HR
2026-07-07	Spencer Torkelson	—	no HR

Showing first 12 of 16 qualifying player-days.

homerun firstmiddlelast = opponent moniker [rev_ordinal] = 146

146

37.5%

11.9%

3.14×

18.5%

discovery

Signals: homerun firstmiddlelast, opponent moniker [rev_ordinal]

6 distinct players · 12 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Pete Crow-Armstrong	146	no HR
2026-06-03	Pete Crow-Armstrong	146	HR
2026-06-04	Pete Crow-Armstrong	146	HR
2026-06-23	Rafael Devers	146	no HR
2026-06-24	Rafael Devers	146	HR
2026-06-24	Victor Bericoto	146	HR
2026-06-25	Rafael Devers	146	no HR
2026-06-25	Victor Bericoto	146	HR
2026-07-03	Xavier Edwards	146	no HR
2026-07-04	Xavier Edwards	146	no HR
2026-07-05	Xavier Edwards	146	no HR
2026-07-07	Spencer Torkelson	146	no HR

Showing first 12 of 16 qualifying player-days.

homerun firstmiddlelast = opponent city [rev_ordinal] = opponent name [rev_ordinal] = opponent moniker [rev_ordinal]

—

37.5%

11.9%

3.14×

18.5%

discovery

Signals: homerun firstmiddlelast, opponent city [rev_ordinal], opponent name [rev_ordinal], opponent moniker [rev_ordinal]

6 distinct players · 12 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Pete Crow-Armstrong	—	no HR
2026-06-03	Pete Crow-Armstrong	—	HR
2026-06-04	Pete Crow-Armstrong	—	HR
2026-06-23	Rafael Devers	—	no HR
2026-06-24	Rafael Devers	—	HR
2026-06-24	Victor Bericoto	—	HR
2026-06-25	Rafael Devers	—	no HR
2026-06-25	Victor Bericoto	—	HR
2026-07-03	Xavier Edwards	—	no HR
2026-07-04	Xavier Edwards	—	no HR
2026-07-05	Xavier Edwards	—	no HR
2026-07-07	Spencer Torkelson	—	no HR

Showing first 12 of 16 qualifying player-days.

homerun firstmiddlelast = opponent city [rev_ordinal] = 146

146

37.5%

11.9%

3.14×

18.5%

discovery

Signals: homerun firstmiddlelast, opponent city [rev_ordinal]

6 distinct players · 12 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Pete Crow-Armstrong	146	no HR
2026-06-03	Pete Crow-Armstrong	146	HR
2026-06-04	Pete Crow-Armstrong	146	HR
2026-06-23	Rafael Devers	146	no HR
2026-06-24	Rafael Devers	146	HR
2026-06-24	Victor Bericoto	146	HR
2026-06-25	Rafael Devers	146	no HR
2026-06-25	Victor Bericoto	146	HR
2026-07-03	Xavier Edwards	146	no HR
2026-07-04	Xavier Edwards	146	no HR
2026-07-05	Xavier Edwards	146	no HR
2026-07-07	Spencer Torkelson	146	no HR

Showing first 12 of 16 qualifying player-days.

homerun firstmiddlelast = opponent city [rev_ordinal] = opponent name [rev_ordinal] = 146

146

37.5%

11.9%

3.14×

18.5%

discovery

Signals: homerun firstmiddlelast, opponent city [rev_ordinal], opponent name [rev_ordinal]

6 distinct players · 12 distinct dates · 2026-06-02 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-02	Pete Crow-Armstrong	146	no HR
2026-06-03	Pete Crow-Armstrong	146	HR
2026-06-04	Pete Crow-Armstrong	146	HR
2026-06-23	Rafael Devers	146	no HR
2026-06-24	Rafael Devers	146	HR
2026-06-24	Victor Bericoto	146	HR
2026-06-25	Rafael Devers	146	no HR
2026-06-25	Victor Bericoto	146	HR
2026-07-03	Xavier Edwards	146	no HR
2026-07-04	Xavier Edwards	146	no HR
2026-07-05	Xavier Edwards	146	no HR
2026-07-07	Spencer Torkelson	146	no HR

Showing first 12 of 16 qualifying player-days.

lastname = pitcher [chaldean] = last name [reduction]

—

37.5%

11.9%

3.14×

18.5%

discovery

Signals: lastname, pitcher [chaldean], last name [reduction]

16 distinct players · 11 distinct dates · 2026-06-04 → 2026-07-08 · out-of-sample 0/1

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-04	Adolis García	—	HR
2026-06-06	Carter Jensen	—	HR
2026-06-12	Iván Herrera	—	no HR
2026-06-16	Gabriel Rincones Jr.	—	no HR
2026-06-16	Justin Crawford	—	no HR
2026-06-18	Ezequiel Duran	—	HR
2026-06-18	Alejandro Osuna	—	no HR
2026-06-20	Jorbit Vivas	—	no HR
2026-06-20	Edwin Arroyo	—	no HR
2026-06-24	Max Muncy	—	HR
2026-06-24	Luis Torrens	—	no HR
2026-06-24	Jared Young	—	HR

Showing first 12 of 16 qualifying player-days.

lastname = firstlast [chaldean] = last name [reduction]

—

37.5%

11.9%

3.14×

18.5%

discovery

Signals: lastname, firstlast [chaldean], last name [reduction]

16 distinct players · 11 distinct dates · 2026-06-04 → 2026-07-08 · out-of-sample 0/1

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-04	Adolis García	—	HR
2026-06-06	Carter Jensen	—	HR
2026-06-12	Iván Herrera	—	no HR
2026-06-16	Gabriel Rincones Jr.	—	no HR
2026-06-16	Justin Crawford	—	no HR
2026-06-18	Ezequiel Duran	—	HR
2026-06-18	Alejandro Osuna	—	no HR
2026-06-20	Jorbit Vivas	—	no HR
2026-06-20	Edwin Arroyo	—	no HR
2026-06-24	Max Muncy	—	HR
2026-06-24	Luis Torrens	—	no HR
2026-06-24	Jared Young	—	HR

Showing first 12 of 16 qualifying player-days.

lastname = firstlast [chaldean] = pitcher [chaldean] = last name [reduction]

—

37.5%

11.9%

3.14×

18.5%

discovery

Signals: lastname, firstlast [chaldean], pitcher [chaldean], last name [reduction]

16 distinct players · 11 distinct dates · 2026-06-04 → 2026-07-08 · out-of-sample 0/1

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-04	Adolis García	—	HR
2026-06-06	Carter Jensen	—	HR
2026-06-12	Iván Herrera	—	no HR
2026-06-16	Gabriel Rincones Jr.	—	no HR
2026-06-16	Justin Crawford	—	no HR
2026-06-18	Ezequiel Duran	—	HR
2026-06-18	Alejandro Osuna	—	no HR
2026-06-20	Jorbit Vivas	—	no HR
2026-06-20	Edwin Arroyo	—	no HR
2026-06-24	Max Muncy	—	HR
2026-06-24	Luis Torrens	—	no HR
2026-06-24	Jared Young	—	HR

Showing first 12 of 16 qualifying player-days.

firstlast [chaldean] = month day [reduction] = 38

37.5%

11.9%

3.14×

18.5%

discovery

Signals: firstlast [chaldean], month day [reduction]

14 distinct players · 5 distinct dates · 2026-06-05 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-05	Willy Adames	38	HR
2026-06-05	Rafael Devers	38	no HR
2026-06-05	Matt Chapman	38	HR
2026-06-05	Casey Schmitt	38	HR
2026-06-12	Jose Altuve	38	no HR
2026-06-12	Christian Walker	38	HR
2026-06-12	Taylor Trammell	38	no HR
2026-07-04	Alec Bohm	38	HR
2026-07-04	Bryson Stott	38	no HR
2026-07-05	Alec Bohm	38	no HR
2026-07-05	Bryson Stott	38	no HR
2026-07-09	Juan Soto	38	HR

Showing first 12 of 16 qualifying player-days.

firstlast [chaldean] = month day [reduction] = pitcher [chaldean] = 38

37.5%

11.9%

3.14×

18.5%

discovery

Signals: firstlast [chaldean], month day [reduction], pitcher [chaldean]

14 distinct players · 5 distinct dates · 2026-06-05 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-05	Willy Adames	38	HR
2026-06-05	Rafael Devers	38	no HR
2026-06-05	Matt Chapman	38	HR
2026-06-05	Casey Schmitt	38	HR
2026-06-12	Jose Altuve	38	no HR
2026-06-12	Christian Walker	38	HR
2026-06-12	Taylor Trammell	38	no HR
2026-07-04	Alec Bohm	38	HR
2026-07-04	Bryson Stott	38	no HR
2026-07-05	Alec Bohm	38	no HR
2026-07-05	Bryson Stott	38	no HR
2026-07-09	Juan Soto	38	HR

Showing first 12 of 16 qualifying player-days.

month day [reduction] = pitcher [chaldean] = 38

37.5%

11.9%

3.14×

18.5%

discovery

Signals: month day [reduction], pitcher [chaldean]

14 distinct players · 5 distinct dates · 2026-06-05 → 2026-07-09 · out-of-sample —

Date	Player	Value	Outcome
2026-06-05	Willy Adames	38	HR
2026-06-05	Rafael Devers	38	no HR
2026-06-05	Matt Chapman	38	HR
2026-06-05	Casey Schmitt	38	HR
2026-06-12	Jose Altuve	38	no HR
2026-06-12	Christian Walker	38	HR
2026-06-12	Taylor Trammell	38	no HR
2026-07-04	Alec Bohm	38	HR
2026-07-04	Bryson Stott	38	no HR
2026-07-05	Alec Bohm	38	no HR
2026-07-05	Bryson Stott	38	no HR
2026-07-09	Juan Soto	38	HR

Showing first 12 of 16 qualifying player-days.

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Hit Grid — Season 2026 (most recent first)

📈 Next-Day Backtest — When Model Picks on Day D, Does Player Hit on Day D+1? "They go tomorrow" theory

v33 — Top next-day hitters

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📈 Next-Day Hit Grid — Season 2026 (predictions on D, HRs on D+1)

🔬 Feature Combinations — Long-Tail HR Signals